“ACNIS ReView from Yerevan” . The meeting between the leaders of two nuclear superpowers—the Russian Federation and the United States—at the Alaska summit on August 15 in Anchorage drew the world’s attention, becoming one of the most widely discussed developments on international platforms. The Putin–Trump negotiations, aimed at ending the three-and-a-half-year-long Russo-Ukrainian (or Russia–Collective West) conflict, largely focused on global security and the restoration of peace in regions unsettled by ongoing tensions.
It is clear that halting the prolonged Ukrainian crisis would also encourage ceasefires in other conflict zones, facilitate dispute resolution, and clarify relations between opposing sides. Everyone longs for peace—but real peace, safeguarded by a strong army and a united society. God forbid that U.S. military forces were to enter our territory—even under the guise of a private military company—Armenia would become one of the few places in the world where both American and Russian armed forces are present simultaneously. We would be the second country after Syria to face such an undesirable reality.
Sadly, we are not far from a Syrian-like scenario. The incumbent authorities of the Republic of Armenia have “taken care” of that rather well. The result is that Armenia today stands on the verge of a sovereignty rollback—a “Syrianization.” In other words, it risks becoming a territory with a disputed, fragile, and unclear security system, its fate dependent on the relations of great powers and the goodwill of neighbors like Iran or strategic allies like Russia. Therefore, Nikol Pashinyan would do well to temper his recent enthusiasm and pompous declarations about the questionable Washington forum, where he and his counterpart signed a joint peace declaration brokered by Trump.
Yes, Donald Trump may very well seek—and perhaps even secure—a Nobel Peace Prize. He may succeed in negotiations with Russian President Putin. But the so-called “Trump Route,” passing through sovereign Armenian territory, will never be a project that truly benefits Armenians. The initiative—branded the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP—would use Armenian land subleased by the U.S. to a consortium tasked with building and managing a transport corridor linking Turkey in the west to the Caspian Sea in the east, bypassing Georgia with a shorter route. And why will Armenians fail to benefit? Because the Washington process is riddled with uncertainties and artificial constructs. As many seasoned observers note, once Trump secures his Nobel, he will likely forget Armenia altogether—just as he confused it multiple times with Albania during an interview on Mark Levin’s radio show.
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The ambitious U.S. president simply needed a trump card to play at the Alaska summit with Putin. It is no coincidence that, just a week earlier, Trump hosted the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia at the White House under the framework of the “Zangezur Corridor,” overseeing the initial signing of a peace agreement as well as several other bilateral and trilateral documents. These gestures were designed to give Trump confidence, leverage, and prestige in his negotiations with Putin.
It is safe to say that a political “grand bargain” has already begun. Today’s global situation resembles the tense atmosphere on the eve of World War I, when powerful states were “all against all,” driven by clashing interests, goals, and ambitions. Many experts warn that the contradictions evident today mirror those of the early 20th century, concluding that the “Trump Route” project is destined to collapse. Some even predict that in the coming years, major conflicts will shift to the Islamic world—right up to our own region.
The danger is very real: the South Caucasus could become a testing ground for global confrontations. And the greatest misfortune is that, in such a moment of looming capitulation under pressure, Armenia is governed by leaders preoccupied with personal matters. Their only consolation seems to be the naïve belief that if problems arise, they can simply call the White House—and Trump will solve them.
The Armenian Center for National and International Studies