The Armenian Mirror-Spectator. Armenia became the last country in the region to establish strategic relations with China. I’ve argued in my articles that Armenia’s approach to China is short-sighted, and it should deepen relations with Beijing. Armenia will inevitably deepen relations with Beijing, given that all surrounding states maintain strong strategic and economic ties with China. The main regional players, such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran, also have strategic relations with China. From this perspective, Armenia has found itself in regional isolation. Furthermore, I conveyed that China would seize the opportunity to establish a strategic presence in the South Caucasus, given Russia’s limited capacity to reinvest resources and restore its influence there.
Regarding the United States, the “Trump route” doesn’t guarantee an American strategic presence in the South Caucasus. Current business and economic involvement doesn’t constitute strategic presence. While increased involvement could lead to one, it’s premature to say that it can become a strategic presence. However, as for today, there’s little indication that American businesses are interested in the road’s operation.
Just two months ago, Pashinyan suggested Armenia could seek European Union (EU) membership within 20 years. This means that membership is not currently an Armenian foreign policy option, and EU membership for Armenia is unlikely to happen in the near future. That is why Armenia has no other choice but is forced to find other alternatives. Countries like Georgia, Ukraine, and Turkey have been ready to join the EU for decades but have not been accepted. There is no guarantee that Armenia can be in the EU even in 20 years.
After this statement by Prime Minister Pashinyan on the EU, Armenia decided to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and establish strategic cooperative relations with China. If Armenia’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was not vetoed by Pakistan, with which Armenia established diplomatic ties just a few days ago, Armenia would have become a member of this organization, and European integration would be even more difficult. Interestingly, Pakistan vetoed Armenia’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, while India vetoed Azerbaijan’s. Armenia found itself in a ludicrous situation because Pakistan established diplomatic relations with Armenia a day before the veto.
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It should be recalled that Pakistan never recognized Armenia as a state until now and was hostile towards Yerevan, unconditionally supporting Azerbaijan. Although diplomatic relations have been established now, it seems Pakistan’s hostile approach remains unchanged.
As for bilateral relations with China, Armenia officially has recognized the One China principle, acknowledging Taiwan as an integral part of China, in an effort to rectify past missteps. It should be noted that the Taiwanese minister of economy’s visit to Armenia some years ago strained Armenian-Chinese relations.
Armenia’s strategic partnership with China appears driven by a perceived lack of alternative options in Yerevan’s foreign policy. Recognizing China’s growing influence, Armenia sought membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This belated step could have yielded greater economic benefits and a more diversified foreign policy through earlier and more active engagement with Beijing.
The conclusion is that Armenia’s foreign policy priorities are driven by a lack of alternatives rather than its own interests, indicating a reactive approach instead of a proactive, strategic vision.