Political analyst Arsen Gasparyan recently recalled that in Africa and Latin America, dictators often proclaimed a “new republic” to justify their revolutions or coups and to secure long-term rule.
I would add that such practice also exists in the post-Soviet space, where it’s known as a “reset.” For example, in 2020, Russia’s Constitutional Court confirmed Putin’s right to run for president a fifth time (for the third consecutive term), which indeed happened in 2024. And there is no doubt that, barring any physical obstacles, it will happen again in 2030.
Thus, Putin has effectively occupied his throne for 25 years. The other CIS leaders are not far behind: Lukashenko (31 years), Rahmon (33 years), Aliyev (22 years). The “freshest” among them is Tokayev (6.5 years). Incidentally, during the “historic” meeting in the Oval Office on August 8, Trump asked Aliyev how many years he had ruled the country. Upon hearing the answer, the U.S. president remarked, “That means he’s tough and smart.” I believe that statement contradicts the political traditions of the United States—because clinging endlessly to one’s chair, at the very least, is hardly a sign of great intelligence.
I think the aforementioned CIS leaders form precisely the kind of familiar environment in which Pashinyan feels most comfortable—both in terms of political regimes and in the aspiration to rule indefinitely. As Lukashenko said during their recent meeting, “Nikol Vovaevich can’t do without us” (“Никол Воваевич без нас никуда”). And that only seems like a joke at first glance.
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But the opposite is also true. Despite the conspiracy theories of the “pro-Westerners,” Pashinyan is just as convenient a figure for Putin. In fact, he is convenient for all external players. So, in that respect, we should have no illusions.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
