Ilham Aliyev periodically makes statements that sharply contradict the Armenian authorities’ daily refrain—repeated ten times a day—that “peace has been established.” The Azerbaijani president, of course, knows that this puts Pashinyan and his allies in an awkward position, and Aliyev himself has a strong interest in the re-production of the Civil Contract government. So why would he threaten his friends here?
To answer that question we need to take a small step back. When in 2019 Pashinyan rejected the OSCE Minsk Group’s proposal and began to speak as if everything starts from a “zero point” and “we’ll negotiate whatever we want,” Aliyev understood that he was dealing with an inexperienced, disproportionately ambitious adventurer — and therefore the time had come to try to resolve the matter by military means.
But the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) issue is only one phase of Turkey’s and Azerbaijan’s program. The plan is much broader and aims at the erasure of Armenian statehood in this region. Clearly, that will take years, perhaps decades, and because of Pashinyan’s aforementioned traits he will most likely facilitate the implementation of the next phases and waypoints of that plan, even if not its final completion.
However, when it comes to strategic objectives, they cannot be kept entirely secret — otherwise neither your own citizens nor foreign partners will take you seriously. Naturally, Aliyev will not say directly, “our goal is the liquidation of the Armenian state and the incorporation of this territory into a Greater Turan.” That may not be his generation’s concern.
Read also
So he speaks of “intermediate steps” that will be carried out in the coming years: a “corridor,” the “return” of 300,000 Azerbaijanis, enclaves, and so on. Judging by the reaction of Armenia’s current authorities, their attitude toward those steps is entirely positive.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
