“ACNIS ReView from Yerevan”. This question has no clear or definitive answer. Neither of the two prevailing scenarios circulating in public discourse and expert discussions can be dismissed. Those who believe Nikol Pashinyan’s re-election is impossible point to what they see as his dishonesty, frivolity, and betrayal of national interests, treason, and other qualities unbefitting a national leader. Taken together, these traits have contributed to the unprecedentedly low approval ratings of both Pashinyan and the Civil Contract party he heads, supported by recent, reputable survey data (especially from CRRC and IRI). Public trust in the ruling force has reached historic lows.
In contrast, supporters of the opposite scenario are convinced that Pashinyan will secure re-election by relying on his control over administrative and financial resources, as well as by employing electoral fraud, violence, and coercion. They also argue that he continues to receive support from international power centers, whose diligent executor he is in many areas of Armenia’s domestic and foreign policy. Advocates of this view also consider the so-called Armenian-Azerbaijani peace deal and the recently adopted populist Law on Military Service and the Status of Servicemen, reducing compulsory military service to 18 months to be major advantages working in Pashinyan’s favor.
Pashinyan is certainly not sitting idle. He effectively launched the pre-election campaign for the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026, at least a year earlier. During his working visit to Turkey this summer, he invited president Erdogan to participate in the 8th Summit of the European Political Community, which will take place in Yerevan in May 2026. It is quite possible that the timing of this event has been deliberately aligned with Pashinyan’s pre-election period, serving as a form of support from the European community. The presence of Erdogan and Aliyev—who has also been invited—is particularly desirable for Pashinyan, as it enables him to showcase his international stature and relevance.
Incidentally, about eight months before the elections, the main competitors of the Civil Contract party are already clear. They include the Armenia political alliance led by former President Robert Kocharyan; the newly established Wings of Unity political initiative headed by former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan; and the Mer Dzevov (In Our Way) civic movement, whose ideological leader is businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan, who has been unlawfully detained since June 18. It is evident that an extremely tense competition lies ahead, and the ruling Civil Contract party—especially Pashinyan—is making every effort to create favorable conditions for his re-election.
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Pashinyan understands that an electoral defeat would signal his political end; therefore, he does not lessen the intensity of his campaign on any front. He leaves no opportunity unused—not even the smallest loophole that might promise success. One example: on June 6 of this year, the owner of Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) applied to the Public Services Regulatory Commission (PSRC), stating that based on the results of the first half of the year, it was possible to reduce the electricity tariff by up to 10 drams—a request that was rejected. A few days ago, the application was resubmitted by “Tashir Capital” CJSC and was again rejected. It is said that the authorities do not want the public to feel gratitude toward Samvel Karapetyan.
Of course, a benefactor of his stature inevitably provokes envy—after all, his public approval rating is already extremely high. But envy is only part of the story. The authorities’ intentions appear far more calculated. They seem to prefer keeping Karapetyan unlawfully detained in the basement of the National Security Service and then, using the more than 6 billion drams saved by ENA in 2025, reconsider lowering the electricity tariff right before the elections—so that the gesture can be attributed to Nikol Pashinyan’s supposed generosity.
