Is Nikol Pashinyan’s announcement about snap elections a “bluff” or not? For two days now, the Armenian public has been trying to make up its mind, while various groups have been trying to steer public opinion toward one answer or the other. No one—or at least an overwhelming majority—believes that Nikol Pashinyan could so readily agree to hold snap elections. On the other hand, there is another question: what, if anything, would Pashinyan readily agree to? Many would answer that the only thing he would readily do is make concessions to Azerbaijan.
That would certainly be a pointed and remarkably accurate answer. But if so, why is he not readily moving to amend the Constitution and meet Azerbaijan’s demand to revoke the Declaration of Independence? He does not have the necessary constitutional majority. Consequently, at least on this issue, Pashinyan cannot so easily meet Azerbaijan’s demand and make yet another concession. He has therefore found himself in a difficult position, and his announcement about snap elections is a consequence of that. Whether it is a bluff or not is not the essential point. After all, when faced with a difficult situation, he may well resort to such a “bluff.”
This brings us to the more important question: should the public and the opposition ignore this situation, or should they try to turn the “bluff” into reality? After all, it was the combined electoral efforts of the opposition and the public that created this predicament for Pashinyan by preventing him from securing a constitutional majority. And given that the only thing he readily agrees to is meeting Azerbaijan’s demands, Pashinyan’s current predicament may, relatively speaking, be a more favourable situation for Armenia’s national interests. The task, then, is to devote our intellectual resources and energy to turning even a possible “bluff” into reality—in other words, to building on even the limited success achieved on June 7 in advancing the interests of the state and the public.
Hakob BADALYAN
