As a result of the public opinion poll conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association, mainly the two ruling parties will compete in the National Assembly election. Gevorg Poghosyan, the head of the association, said at the national press club that 75% of voters would vote for the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) or the Armenian National Congress (ANC), “As for today, it is clear that two ruling parties and one opposition party will cross the margin, so the election will be conducted in the format 2+1.” In sociologist’s words, this year’s parliamentary election will be unique, “An election with predictable results, but unpredictable clashes is expected.”
The 25% of votes will be won by other opposition parties, such as the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), the Rule of Law Party (RLP) and the Heritage Party, “These parties have a chance to cross the margin, but it is possible that they will not cross it. These three will compete with each other.”
In the sociologist’s opinion the citizens have participated in elections more actively in recent years, because he is convinced that voter is more critical about the government, “There will be a serious struggle, a tough election. Voter is different today, he is more demanding and it will not be easy to win his vote.”
In Mr. Poghosyan’s words, no party will win a majority in the National Assembly, “As for today, the RPA is leading, but it will not have more than 50% in the parliament.”
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Let us mention that the poll of the association was conducted among 1000 people of all age and gender groups, “75% of voters clearly know who they will vote for. The paradox of Armenian voter is that however much he complains about the establishment, all the same, he votes for the establishment. We are pro-establishment, pro-government.”
The influence of the administrative resource on the results of the upcoming election will also be unavoidable, “Internal traditional methods will influence, but the external factors will be less, because the situation is that Russia, Europe and the United States have not raised an urgent issue of power change.”
It was hard for the sociologist to say whether there would be post-election developments or not, “There will be, if the ANC doesn’t get as many votes, as it intends to.”
As for former foreign minister Vartan Oskanian’s membership to the PAP, in sociologist’s opinion, his presence will strengthen the PAP.
Arpine SIMONYAN
