US President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural speech was historic. Not for its political content but its blatant absence which indicates that the world’s sole superpower has entered a period of great uncertainty. It is also not clear how long it will last. Also, it is not clear what price he will pay for coming out of this period and who will pay. The current US president has historically the lowest confidence level, below 40%, while hundreds of thousands of Americans have come out to the streets to protest. Such is the nature of the superpower, “The price of greatness is responsibility” Winston Churchill used to say.
And it is an axiom for the American political class that the problem cannot be limited only to inside US circles, and the tsunami caused by this can hit any part of the earth and the system of international relations, on the whole. In his farewell speech, already former Vice President Joe Biden called Russia the greatest threat to the international liberal world order. While a bipartisan group of the most influential senators promises a new “deadly” package of sanctions against Russia, and therewith blow out the desire of Trump and some figures of his new administration to conclude a deal with Moscow at all costs.
Whereas the incompatibility of Moscow’s appetite and the possibility to satisfy it deepens irreversibly. As mentioned by Russian economist and Professor Igor Nikolayev based on official data, Russia’s Reserve Fund now amounts to only USD 16 billion when on September 1, 2014, it was USD 91.7. While Russia’s National Welfare Fund amounts to 71.9 billion, and according to the economist, already this year it will be completely consumed to cover the growing deficit of country’s budget. If we consider the US lawmakers’ decisiveness with which they intend to finally bring Moscow to its knees (and Trump’s large number of party members are among them), then the expected force-majeure can arrive sooner. Undoubtedly, the American woodcutter has decided to cut Russia’s rotten tree and will not abandon this idea as long as Putin is in the Kremlin.
According to Stalin’s favorite Russian proverb: when cutting the log, let the chips fall where they may … The American dilemma is very clear, either the system changes Trump, or the system puts Trump out of the politics, and undoubtedly, the American institutions are quite capable to sooner or later solve this dilemma in favor of the US state and the society. The US media warns President-elect that “not yours but our rules will function here.” While Armenia in its turn is heading to new elections having a self-exhausted in all sense, discredited and “Russian-standards” operating “post-Soviet” system in its actives which are no longer subject to any “reforms”.
Furthermore, this system has become one of the rotten branches of the Russian rotten tree, and it makes no sense to hope that it will give leaves as it is against the law of nature. And how many people in Armenia’s political field are ready to declare what they will do when the moment comes when Russia will no longer be able to pay Armenia for the “old-age friendship”, when Armenia’s fulfillment and failure to fulfil the “commitments before the EaEU” will be neither hot nor cold for Russia. It is also clear that against the background of uncertainty by US and Russian, Armenia’s uncertainty is just beginning and it will not end with the elections in April, irrespective of its results. Armenia will still face the “problem-2018” when the term of presidential powers of Serzh Sargsyan will end, and the question remains open as to who will be the real power in Armenia.
The April elections under the new Constitution cannot answer this question. It happens what many people were warning about: the transition of the institute of elections to the parliamentary system in the event of discrediting over the years will lead not to the establishment of wings of the power, real restraints between them and the formation and enhancement of balance system but to dispersion of political responsibility and total political irresponsibility, up to the political insanity.
Life showed that the current system is unable to respond to the current challenges, and the current stalemate is the evidence and proof of it. And even the surficial glance to the main role-players in the forthcoming elections, and slightly “turning over the pages” of their “medical history”, it becomes clear that what is to be formed in April is going to be the same old but repackaged in terms of functional and quality if such course of events will not collide with some force-majeure. It will collide. And essentially, it does not even matter whether it is going to be in April or after April, until April 2018. But life will continue even after that.
Welcome to the arms of indignation. They are coming to “take out” the country from “this situation.” And the same people come who and due to whom the country has appeared in “this situation.” Those who were cutting the small Armenian tree to graft on the Russian “big” but initially rotten tree by damaging and dry it out, and now are simply underestimating people’s both abilities and memory… In this “political storage”, there are unique individuals who without having a big chance, however, are trying to convey a political content to the pre-election atmosphere. Perhaps, it’s worth sparing efforts “not to be burnt out” on the way as it does not end but begins with April, and the duty of society and political figures is to ensure a way out from this experience of uncertainty and indignation at a minimal price…
Franklin Roosevelt in his inauguration speech on January 20, 1933, said, “The only thing we have to fear is…fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance … Our people are demanding action and an undelayed action.”