ANC City Council member, economist Zoya Tadevosyan about ‘minuses’ of the Customs Union
– Much time has been passed since the unexpected decision of Serzh Sargsyan regarding Armenia’s joining the Customs Union, now it is possible to make a more sober assessment and analysis. However, how would you assess Serge Sargsyan’s unexpected move, maybe it was the right solution for this moment.
– Serzh Sargsyan’s move as such was a surprise on September 3, both for the people and the public, but as it turned out a few days ago, it was not a surprise for the people who were secretly participating in the process of joining the Customs Union and they were more openly participating in the discussions of the EU Association Agreement. Here, a question arises whether the authorities of Armenia are honest in their behavior, in foreign economic relations. No, absolutely no. Dishonest behavior, which is more disgusting, and leaves a worse impression. For example, I would more agree that Serzh Sargsyan had made the decision with much of the influence of pressure, because in the first case everything is clear that our country is so dependent from the RF, our economy is so dependent on the RF that is we give an average score for all sectors of the economy, we are 70 per cent under the yoke of the Russian economy. Not to speak about the RF’s military presence in RA. But, it turns out that Serzh Sargsyan was not subjected to any pressure. He had conducted negotiations with the Russian authorities in secret and had cheated the Europe. For me, this is a very terrible negative impression. It is very ugly, and as a citizen of Armenia, I am offended that we can afford such an indecent conduct.
– What was the purpose of such confidentiality?
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– I think they took, possessed quite a lot of money from this very unfair step with Europe. That was it. As to why our authorities cheated Europeans, let the Europeans themselves find the reasons for it, and achieve their decision.
– Do you think that the RA authorities will easily and quietly digest the money possessed from Europe?
– RF is a very strong country, because it is the richest country in the world, but it can not yet fully utilize its capabilities. At the same time, RF has a very strong military bases, keep the whole world in fear and trembling. I think this type of partnership will enable the RA authorities to come out of this situation dry. The EU also does not need to be in conflict with the RF. I think Europe will never want to become RF’s rival. It’s better to be a friend. But the RF’s situation will get much worse when Ukraine is actually detached from the RF. In fact, only three countries that already have a Customs Union Agreement will remain with the RF. Armenia has announced that it would join, but Armenia’s economic role in the Customs Union is zero for the RF. It was only a political decision for the RF, because it had lost Georgia, Azerbaijan, Central Asian Republics are very weak, very regressed and have no prospective to join the Customs Union over the next 10-15 years, the Baltic states and Moldova have left, and only Belarus and Kazakhstan have remained. If Ukraine is gone, the RF will encounter serious problems, its opportunity to establish a separate regional unit, if it was to be strong, it has lost it. That’s why it clung from Armenia.
– After Serzh Sargsyan’s statement, immediately some economic estimations and arguments began to appear that the move of joining the Customs Union would be economically beneficial for Armenia. If we leave aside the political aspect of the issue, does Armenia have some benefits from this step purely in the sense of economy?
– Of course, no. Regional economic integration is a consistent process to certain strategic steps. In order for countries to integrate into one economic union, and have certain achievements, they first need to be developed, since the goal of integration is to avoid duplications of production. If the countries are specialized in the production of certain goods, based on their comparative advantages, the products for which they have no such advantages, they can be obtained from neighboring countries, with which they are integrated without any customs duties. In other words, the customs duties are left out, and products in general market are becoming cheaper. But the four countries integrating into the Customs Union can be called backward countries. If you study the structure of their exports, mainly raw products are exported. The majority of the RF budget is formed from the exports of oil, in the case when the developed countries are exporting high-tech and finished products. China is in the first place the world’s commodity turnover, which exports cheap and finished goods with the help of cheap workforce, and is years ahead from other leading countries. This is the goal to make professional advantages possibly shared among the partner countries. If these countries are exporting raw materials, what should they barter to use the advantage? I do not know who makes such estimations, but they must be reasonable, based on the actual structure of trade. When those evaluating study the structure of trade, they will see that their estimates are just talks on the level of compliment. And the compliment is directed at Baghramyan 26.
– Thus, can we consider the European perspective for Armenia completed?
– If the document on joining the Customs Union is signed, yes. But the problem, here, should not be the prospective for us, but the maximum benefits of our partnership, and the main objective should be the protection of the interests of Armenia, whether in Europe or the RF, it did not matter. The important thing for us was to actually have a beneficial partnership, if taken into account our geographical location. And the geographical location reminds us that we need to go through the border of a country to be able to be integrated in this or that union. Such country is Georgia, and Georgia today is oriented towards Europe. Also, Azerbaijan, Turkey, which is a member of the EU Customs Union since 1986. In this case, Armenia enters into a union, with which it has no borders, and remains enclave with no prospects.
Interviewer Nelly GRIGORYAN
