On Saturday, November 23, in Geneva, the “six”: the United States, Great Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany have come to a turning agreement with Iran, which has to freeze Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. authorities have stated that this is the first such international agreement in coming decade that is signed to halt Iran’s nuclear program. What developments will this agreement result in the region, what will it give to Armenia on the way to its integration to the CU? Does this agreement preclude the possibility of military operations in the region?
In conversation with Aravot.am, addressing these questions, the expert of the Center for Political and International Studies, political scientist Ruben Mehrabyan said that, in his assessment, the risk for war was theoretical. According to the political scientist, normalization of relations between Iran and the international community opens up possibilities for cooperation for Iran, with the country’s entire resources. And it directly means that Iran will enter into competition with Russia, for the simple reason that Iran has the world’s second largest gas reserves; it also has huge oil reserves. “These are the factors that allow Putin to use as a weapon in his blackmail politics towards Europe and the former Soviet Union countries, which, in fact, he is not hiding, and says, Russia’s energy weapon. Opening of Iran to the international community considerably complicates Russia’s capabilities as such,” added the political scientist.
Our interlocutor believes that as a result of this agreement Iran may have wider participation in regional processes, be they economic or political. In this context, Ruben Mehrabyan considers Russia to be the only disturbing factor in Armenian-Iranian relations. “Because Russia would not want Iran to become its competitor in Armenia, or in its relations with Armenia. In other words, Iran to become an alternative for Armenia. But, given that warming of relations between Iran and the West towards Iran, elimination of sanctions, thawing of financial resources, and so on, I think that Armenia can also obtain an ally in the development of Armenian- Iranian relations in the face of the West.”
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The agreement reached between the six and Iran, qualifying as “historical”, our interlocutor notes, “On the background of this event, it is just crying of what a blatant mistake Armenia did on September 3, significantly reducing its chances. In fact, now, Armenia is under a great risk just laying all of its possibilities under the heel of Russian boot, which mashing will pass over these opportunities. And, these are possibilities that we did not have since the first day of Armenia’s independence until now. These possibilities are just opening, and it is Armenia historic duty to use them for the benefit of future generations and the statehood.” To remind that on Sept. 3 Serzh Sargsyan stated in Moscow about his decision o Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union.
Talking about the wave of protest raised in Ukraine, against the decision of the President of the country to postpone signing of the EU Association Agreement, Ruben Mehrabyan said, “What is happening in Ukraine is a very inspiring, contagious and positively enviable process. I think this could be an example for citizens of Armenia of what statehood means, what it means to fight for the nationhood and the future. I believe in the ultimate victory of the Ukrainian people, and I think that this is an example that, yes, it’s possible. And, the unreasonable frustration that has crept the Armenian society as of today, I think, is quite irrelevant. The fight is just beginning, and we need to fight. If there is no struggle, there are no opportunities. We are losing statehood now, but we have an opportunity to avoid it.”
Nelly Grigoryan
