The theme at NATO summit in Wales is, indeed, Ukraine. Regardless of the fact that the meeting is attended by the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, regardless of what they have talked about with John Kerry, regardless of what kind of statement will be made about Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (naturally, Erdoğan will try to “slip out” some Azerbaijani-favor wordings), all of that would not leave any immediate impact on our region. Perhaps, it is important that Armenia along with its extreme pro-Russian stance, is taking part in this meeting trying to display the “and -and” elements in its foreign policy, at least to the minimal.
One can obviously see that deeper the contradictions are between Russia and the West, and more the situation looks like a “cold war”, more difficult it would be to maintain this “and-and”. On Karabakh matter, it is more important for Armenia to preserve the Minsk Group format as a format of cooperation between Russia, Europe and the United States. No unsolvable controversies are observed in the negotiation process between these three entities, at least publicly. Other formats, including the NATO, are not effective for Nagorno-Karabakh matter, and the very NATO leaders have repeatedly emphasized it.
No matter how controversial it sounds, but the decisions that the alliance adopts on Ukraine may have a greater impact on our region than the statements about Karabakh made in Wales. In this regard, it is obvious that NATO as a structure cannot directly participate in hostilities. Unlike Russia, where, to put it mildly, they are indifferent to public opinion and can send their soldiers to another country (in this case, to Ukraine) without any legal basis, for the majority of NATO member countries, it is not so easy to enter into different types of adventures, although, to be fair, it also happens. But the war with Russia would be an adventure for Ukraine, which simply will cause disturbances among the citizens of a number of European countries (and consequently, the voters).
One can obviously see that NATO will not go for this step. Making tough statements is one thing, but starting a large-scale war in Europe is another thing. On the other hand, there are also some “red lines” in Russia. In particular, this country will not attack on the Baltic countries and Poland like it did on Ukraine. But NATO will pretend that the danger is there, and on this basis, it will deploy permanent military facilities in this country.
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In short, the fight would be more of a positional. The West will try economically, including through sanctions and race armament, to weaken Russia. As to how long Russia will stand, it is hard to say. At all events, not 70 years.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
