From time to time, I hear that “certain forces” in Armenia want “Maidan” mature. Usually, it is said by representatives of Russia or their Armenian supporters, hence their remarks are addressed to the West. Sometimes, the opposite also say something like that, but it is not conceivable, Russia does not organize “maidans”. If there is an unacceptable government for it in Armenia, it would “set on” Azerbaijan, and in the event of possible war, it can cause such a chaos that most likely a change of regime will happen here.
“Maidan” or, as Russian and pro-Russian politicians like to say, only the West can carry out a “colored revolution”. Suppose, it needs it for some reason. But such a revolution requires revolutionary masses. Armenia’s third republican history shows that they come out to the arena only in one case, after rigged presidential elections.
Why is it so, it is obvious. Our people need a “kind king”, who like a dear father would take “a good care” of them, the people. Since the 1996 presidential elections, people were convinced that the candidates for the “kind king” were the following: Vazgen Manukyan, Karen Demirchyan, Stepan Demirchyan, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi Hovannisian, who were coming to replace “wicked kings” “not caring about people”, such as Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. And when the “kind kings’ candidates” had a failure because of abuse and fraud of the government, people revolted. Just at that time “Maidan-like” situations are created. In the future, purely theoretically the West can take the advantage of such situation.
Now let’s see to what extent this situation is possible. Let’s take the possible options. Option one (less likely). Serzh Sargsyan resigns. In this case, those demanding his resignation are organizing elections, and the only serious candidate becomes he, the “kind king” candidate. In this case, no post-election “Maidan” would occur. Option two (more likely). The Constitution undergoes amendments, the governance system becomes parliamentary, the position of a “king” is eliminated, and as to who the NA MP would be, the people do not so much care about it. Again, there is no “Maidan”, and perhaps for this very reason the government wants to amend the constitution. Option three (the most likely, for which actually the “trio of the four” is fighting). Presidential elections take place in 2018, the PAP and the RPA, that is, the second and the third presidents, agree to a certain candidate, who is perceived by people as a “kind king” candidate. And again, no “Maidan” occurs. Simply, there is no “Maidan” option. And the “kind king” candidate becomes a “wicked king” in 2-3 months.
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ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
