Blogger Tigran Kocharyan believes that Armenia now has only one dilemma: to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) or not to join. “The other alternative, the EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement vanished, and the Europe particularly did not want to put pressure on Armenia”, said Mr. Kocharyan to Aravot.am. According to him, now it is hard to calculate the economic benefits of Armenia in joining the EaEU, because not everything is properly calculated. “But Armenia’s possible losses in case of failure to join are apparent.
Obviously, Armenia would have problems if Russia decides somehow not to apply sanctions, but to throw Armenia out of its economy. In this case, for example, Armenia would face significant problems with export, it would have to pay a high price for energy carriers… the only alternative left is to join the Customs Union.” T. Kocharyan sees three possible obstacles for Armenia’s accession to the EaEU. “It was the West, but America and Europe are still quiet, they do not ban Armenia to go to a place, there are possible obstacles from there, like they were in Ukraine. Secondly, the possible “reluctance” of the Eurasian Economic Union member countries.
Once, Belarus and Kazakhstan have tried to draw the playing card of Armenia to solve their problems with Russia. But the same Belarus no longer rises the issues of non-involvement of Armenia because of Artsakh, these issues are settled down with Russia, and in the last two months, only positive information is coming from Kazakhstan’s official and non-official circles with regard to Armenia’s membership. In other words, Kazakhstan seems to have settled down the problems with Russia.” The last obstacle, according to Mr. Kocharyan, could be the domestic resistance by the population of Armenia. “But there is no particular resistance inside Armenia, according to all social polls, the majority of respondents are in favor of the affiliation to the Customs Union. And the protests of those fighting against it, we have seen what few people are gathered.”
To our question of whether the rally of consolidated trio that have come together for radical changes in the country may possibly aggravate the situation in the country, said, “No Maidan will occur in Armenia, because the Maidan organizing forces and the countries are engaged with Ukraine and Iraq.” He does not consider the trio’s decision to organize a rally on October 10 accidental. T. Kocharyan thinks that the opposition forces would have something to speculate. “The opposition is in an advantageous situation, because if the agreement with EaEU is signed on that day, then they would start voicing that Armenia has sold its independence, shame of the president, and if it is not signed, they would say, they have betrayed the Russians and do not want to go for it.” To our questions of what to expect from the trio and what possibilities they have, he said, “We need to understand whether it is the next fiery autumn or they really are ready to make serious steps.” At the end, he added that nowadays opposition does not have the resources to do a regime change.
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Arpine SIMONYAN
