Russian well-known businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, recently, I believe, quite rightly observed that Russia’s economic problems are caused not so much by Western sanctions and oil prices rather than the distrust prevailing in his country. People, pursuant to Khodorkovsky, may publicly welcome Putin’s wise domestic and foreign policy, and then run the exchange sites and buy dollars. The main reason of distrust is the economic model, according to which well-being is possible without freedom, has shown its bankruptcy in Russia.
In such cases, it is accepted to illustrate the examples of China, Singapore and various other “tigers” where the economic freedoms are operated under centralization of the power and rigid authoritarian regime. This experience is certainly worth exploring, but we must definitely take the cultural and historical huge differences into account. What is possible in Singapore, is not possible in Armenia, Georgia or Russia.
With that said, I think, the crisis in which we are entering (let’s call things by their proper name) are different from the crises in 1998 and 2009. This one is more systematic and, if it can be said so, more “ideological”. As the above-mentioned countries so as a number of other post-Soviet countries are going to face economic challenges. According to the experts, the living standards and people’s real revenues would drop by about 20-30%. Buying-selling dollar would not be helpful here, neither at the state, nor corporative, nor personal levels.
What would be helpful? First of all, to honestly confess what our situation looks like. During the previous crisis, we tried to be guided by the then Prime Minister’s prescription: the less we talk about the crisis, so it would bypass us. We seemed to be convinced that this prescription does not work. This time, let’s not hide anything, nor deceive ourselves.
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Yes, we need to talk about the crisis, but how? We may fall into panic, to fall into despair, to say that it’s a dead end, that we are powerless in front of the circumstances and so on. But we may view the crisis as numerous new opening opportunities, an aspect to review many things and to change (for instance, to give up with the authoritarian-monopoly model).
The advantage of crisis is that the ones who interpret the situation correctly would win, and accordingly, build their future activities. In this situation, the strong becomes stronger and the weak – weaker. “Whoever has will be given more, and whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from.” (Matthew 13:12). I hope it is clear that the matter is not about material possessions.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
