“I think if new tendencies are not recorded in the global economy in terms of regional developments, then the 4% economic growth can be considered realistic”, – said the Head of “Alternative” Research Center, Tatul Manaseryan, in an interview with Aravot.am. He noted that expectations exert a very important influence on the economic growth, while the international financial institutions, according to him, have made politicized forecasts about the economy of Armenia. “Life has shown that they were truly politicized, because they did not conform to reality, we have addressed this issue still last year in November and December, disagreeing with the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a number of other organizations. In fact, as you can see, they were brought to life and were justified, which made even them to reconsider that happens in very exceptional cases. But the forecasts caused major harm to Armenia’s economy.
I have had the chance to say that no one from the business world dares to make big investments or generally any investment in the event of negative forecasts or economic decline. And this is conditioned, especially for us, due to the development of industries that so far have not reached a sufficient level of development. First of all, it is the processing branches. Until now, the mining industry ensures more unit weight in the gross domestic product, the same can be said for the export.
But such key branches as jewelry, the diamond industry, production of chemical staff and products, electrical devices, manufacture of beverages, leather products, and primary metal production has registered a decline in the first 9 months, which is the direct result of this negative, one can say, harmful forecasts. And I will allow myself to say that what is currently recorded as an index of economic activity in Armenia – 3.7 percent, nearly 4 percent, can truly be considered heroic under these conditions. In other words, it would have been a lot more, not twice but three times, if the expectations were positive or at least if there were no such preconceived opinion. When I say that it should be considered heroic, I primarily attributed it to the peasants and the businessmen, who nonetheless do their job and were able to record such an indicator.”
Note that the initial forecast by the International Monetary Fund was 0% economic growth with a slight positive tendency, later, reviewing its forecast, the organization forecast 2.5 percent economic growth. While, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s initial forecast was 1.5% economic growth, after reviewing it, the Bank’s forecast was 1-3 percent economic growth.
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To our observation that the international financial institutions’ revised forecasts are not in line with economic growth recorded in Armenia, Tatul Manaseryan said, “I think, in such cases, these organizations should be told that it is good that firstly you took the reality into account, on the other hand, they could not but take it into account as it would undermine their rating. We can understand these institutions that are unable to take on the role that is attributed to us, in other words, the residents of Armenia, and the Government of Armenia. It is we who should try breaking the existing situation and prove that we can do more, and the Republic of Armenia has enough economic potential for it, first of all, sufficient human resources that should be appraised, particularly, the knowledge should be appraised and we should not allow the tempo of emigration that we currently have, because we seem to becoming a donor for other countries: we export labor force, on which the government has spent huge amounts of money, starting from education, obtaining experience, and in the future, filling this gap becomes very difficult for us.”
We were curious asking whether Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union had its impact on the reported economic growth, Tatul Manaseryan replied that short time has elapsed since Armenia’s membership to the EaEU, and the Union could not have a big impact. “The Eurasian Economic Union is a new organization, and thus far, we did not have great expectations. Simply, we need to note that the Republic of Armenia should form a national agenda, in other words, not only the requirements that are placed to be a member: compliance with technical standards, compliance with the legislation, customs and tax legislations, and so on, but also in terms of overall environment, it is very important for us not only to fulfill these requirements but to go one step further to see our national interests and to try creating the best favorable conditions for us, which will also enable us to enhance the competitiveness of Armenia’s economy and its separate branches and to be ready for an access to the EU market that has more strict standards.”
Ami CHICHAKYAN
