Tigran Abrahamyan, the Advisor to the President of Artsakh on the announcement of the International Crisis Group, the possibilities of war recurrence and informational “blockade”.
– The International Crisis Group and “Carnegie” foundation publicized reports one after another predicting war in Artsakh. The threat of military operations in Artsakh has always existed: has anything changed? If yes, then what?
– I think the international reports and articles on military actions to commence in Artsakh have been formed taking into consideration a set of important factors. Firstly – not only negotiations ceased after the April War, but Azerbaijan consistently blocks all the attempts of the mediators to restart the negotiations. Secondly – Azerbaijan is armed with the same consistency and proceeds the policy of keeping the situation on the border heated. Thirdly – Azerbaijan continues to threaten as if it will solve the issue through war. As far as we go from April of 2016 and as Azerbaijan does not change its position on the settlement of the conflict, the possibility of the resumption of the military actions increases.
– Can you say that we are now close to war? Whether tendencies of a sudden escalation of the situation are manifested?
– I would not say that the situation on the frontline has a tendency of a sudden escalation, there are not that much of active advancements or accumulations of the troops, at least not now: sniper groups are active.
– The Ambassador of France in Armenia announced recently that status quo is not possible to be kept on the borderline any longer. The Armenian side had referred to it as well – with a precondition, which is – to clarify Artsakh’s status. Does this position go on remaining primary or can it be subject to changes depending on the situation?
– The core issues for Artsakh are the status and the security, which should be reflected in any given document being represented to the sides. In the process the question of the situation change may be possible to view in the case when the negotiations recommence, the approaches of Azerbaijan are clarified (whether they have been subject to shifts), and eventually, when Artsakh is included in the negotiations fully.
– Days ago the Ministry of Defense announced that the daily releases on the ceasefire violations will be replaced by weekly releases. Except for that, the official releases will no more notify a certain direction of the incidents taken place. What are these changes conditioned by? Will the system acquire more closed character in the near future?
– Whilst realizing the function of keeping the communication with the public as well as giving the public proper information, the department takes into consideration a series of peculiarities, which relate directly to the security. Both the important circumstance of providing the public with information and issues of ensuring information security are considered. The aim of this is not to keep something secret from the public but to maximally filter the information theoretically available to the adversary.
– And why is it done now? Did this issue not exist earlier?
– The development and enlargement of the opportunities of technology makes us carry out this decision – as the situation dictates. Let us limit the comment on this subject by the mentioned, not more.
– Many experts insist that the prevention of war has a connection also with the economic opportunities of the sides in many matters. Without a strong economy, it is difficult to imagine a strong army. What is the situation on this and the other side of the border?
– Azerbaijan has not recovered yet after the decrease of oil prices, even the State Statistical Committee records hard times for Azerbaijan’s economy. As far as we are concerned, in comparison with the first trimester of 2016, the index of economic activity in Artsakh in the first trimester of 2017 has recorded 11.5% growth. The volume of the external turnover of Artsakh from January to March of 2017 has amounted to 39.3 billion AMD (80.8 million USD) by actual prices. From January to March of 2017, as compared with the same period in 2016, the volume of the external turnover of Artsakh has increased by 60.2%, furthermore, the export has increased by 70.6% and import by 57.5%. We have determined a rather ambitious destination for us and we confidently move towards that direction.
Nelly GRIGORYAN
