Aravot.am talked to the expert of Azerbaijani affairs Ashot Movsisyan about Ilham Aliyev’s decision to hold presidential elections in Azerbaijan in an extraordinary order this year.
– What do you think, what are the internal political motives of Aliyev’s decree to hold presidential elections on April 11 instead of October 17?
– The President of Azerbaijan has both internal and external motives for making such a decision. No matter how much opposition in Azerbaijan is suppressed and weak, it still exists. A large number of the society, which is not involved in the domestic political life, can go out and join the ranks of the opposition tomorrow. This is what the Baku administration is afraid of and tries to secure itself from the possible tensions. By this decision, Aliyev actually surprised everyone: both the opposition, the population and the international community. Ilham Aliyev will participate in the elections alone, without serious rivals, which was his main goal. He wants to be elected president for the fourth time with a high percentage. The social situation in Azerbaijan is getting worse day by day. When the social issues are exacerbated, the society begins to think and talk about other issues as well. In this case, one of the most sensitive topics is the Artsakh conflict. Over the years, Aliyev’s family has made empty promises to the society, thus making the conflict more complicated. And today those same promises become a headache for the government.
– How will Aliyev benefit from international players if the presidential elections are held earlier?
– By surprising the international community, Ilham Aliyev tries to avoid possible pressures. The West, as well as Russia try to use the presidential election in Azerbaijan as a means of obtaining certain dividends. The West tries to establish democracy in Azerbaijan and ensure fundamental human rights, and the Kremlin desires to deepen its influence in the region and to keep Baku dependent. And Ilham Aliyev likes to act freely and with this step, actually, the possibilities of the West and Moscow are considerably limited.
– Do you think that such a step of Aliyev may be conditioned by the aspiration of “not being left behind” of the inner-political developments in Armenia?
– One of the reasons for making such a decision can be that Ilham Aliyev aims to solve internal political issues and to move to a more active foreign policy. In this case, we can talk about the Artsakh conflict settlement process. I think that waiting until October is perceived as a waste of time by Aliyev who tries to accelerate the negotiation process jointly with Armenia.
– Who is the opposition figure in Azerbaijan who would be able to unite the opposition till October and initiate some actions against the authorities?
– Ilgar Mamedov could be the most serious rival of the incumbent president in the presidential election. However, the latter has been imprisoned since 2013 and has no opportunity to participate in the elections. Amnesty is expected in Azerbaijan in May, and Mamedov may be released under an amnesty. Europe and the US have been pressuring Baku for a long time to release the oppositionist political prisoner. And the Azerbaijani authorities still resist these pressures, but it is clear that the pressures will be intensified up to sanctions. In case Mamedov is set free he will take part in the next presidential election in autumn. And the Azerbaijani ruling regime does not want such developments. Therefore, it goes for elections without serious obstacles.
Luiza SUKIASYAN
