I think many people will agree that the condition of our state is extremely critical. It is even worse in some way than in the beginning of the 1990s. Sure, people are not waiting in lines for gasoline, they aren’t cutting down trees to stay warm, and they aren’t sitting by the candlelight in the evenings. But at the time, it was more or less obvious as to why we took that burden upon ourselves and what direction we needed to move in. Today, the state institutions are in a worse condition, they work less effectively than they did during the “cold and dark” years, the current political authorities simply cannot lead (including the army), and that is why the emphasis is being placed on the rhetoric of aggressive propaganda. Most of society is discouraged and apathetic, despite the fact that some people maintained their revolutionary euphoria and fanatical passion for their leader.
After seeing all of this, many people are saying what elections? The country is in this state. But what is the alternative to elections? The past six months have shown that the root opposition that was carrying out protests in the streets were unable to gather the kind of masses that would have forced Pashinyan to resign. And the reason is clear; not everyone who understands the catastrophe that the current government led our country into was prepared to stand with the Homeland Salvation Movement. Therefore, if snap elections were not going to take place, elections would have taken place in December 2023. But don’t be surprised; I think that even if these snap elections take place, we will have another election in 2023 or even sooner.
I think the scenario will be something like this. The ruling Civil Contract party will have 30 percent of the vote in these elections. In other words, more than 100,000 voters in Armenia still believe that Pashinyan is an angel, if not a god. If there is low participation among voters (it seems that will be the case), then that 30 percent will become 40 percent. When the administrative resources are added, it will reach the desired 50 percent. If some percentages decrease, then Prosperous Armenia, which will enter parliament with a small percentage, will be sufficient to create a ruling coalition. Therefore, I can predict that Pashinyan’s government will be reproduced. The fact that the opposition forces will campaign against each other whether they want to or not will encourage that. The small pro-Pashinyan political parties that will participate in the elections (and, of course, the parties that have no chance of winning) will also work against them.
But nothing will end as a result of these elections. If the government is reproduced, the dissolution of the state and army, as well as the opponent’s violations, will continue. In those conditions, it is unlikely that Pashinyan will rule for five more years. The instability will remain, public tensions will not decrease, and the government’s legitimacy will be simply for show. Therefore, there will be more snap elections.
Read also
Aram Abrahamyan
