As Armenian foreign policy experts will widely comment on and discuss the latest developments in Ukraine over the next 2-3 days, I will simply try to formulate my impressions.
- The broadcast of the meeting of the Security Council of Russia showed that there are no state institutions and state figures in that country in the classical sense of the term. As in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Central Asia, and elsewhere, there are fearful courtiers whose minds and thoughts are to guess and “voice” the intentions and thoughts of the “king.” Putin, of course, has no need to consult with these people, he does not even know his intentions in advance, and the parliamentarians have no opportunity to prepare for the sittings of the Security Council and have a serious discussion.
- The President of Russia, on the contrary, was well prepared for that day, as evidenced by his one-hour speech, which, of course, could not be an improvisation. He summarized quite a lot of material, bringing forth a lot of historical facts and figures. They were mostly correct, and the comments were often dubious. For example, it is not clear that the principle of self-determination of nations and the right to secede from the union were the main reasons for the collapse of the USSR. But the most remarkable thing about Putin’s speech was that the main “protocol” part was in stark contrast to the “conclusion.” After all he said about the Russian Empire, the malicious Bolsheviks, the suffering of Ukraine, its people, and the treacherous behavior of NATO, it was expected that Putin would announce the annexation of Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states to the Russian Empire to restore that empire. After a 50-minute historical-political “preface,” however, the Russian president said that he would take “retaliatory measures” against NATO (he did not say what) and that he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (which, by the way, are ⅓ of the regions of the same name).
- “Well, Ukraine was created by Lenin, and Azerbaijan was created by Stalin. If he recognized Donetsk and Luhansk, then he should also recognize Artsakh,” some Armenians naively suggest. This can be responded to as follows. The superpowers recognize what is in their interest to recognize and, conversely, are staunch advocates of territorial integrity when recognition is not in their interest. In particular, on the Artsakh issue, the Russian President has repeatedly stated that it is part of Azerbaijan under all international law. It is pointless to look for some common principles here.
- “Did you see what Putin did for his nation?” is another simple judgment. I would advise you not to hurry in this matter either.
Aram Abrahamyan
