“The opposition’s dependence on the Kremlin is even greater than on the current government. On the other hand, Russia’s unconditional victory will lead to the de facto ‘voluntary-compulsory’ abolition of the Republic of Armenia, which, too, I hope, is not so unequivocally understood,” says Aravot’s guest, political commentator Armen Hovhannisyan.
– The recent events in the village of Khramort in Artsakh and in the Karaglukh mountain range showed quite remarkable layers. In particular, the RF Ministry of Defense reacted quite harshly, then the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried to balance the issue of equality between the parties. Then it was announced that the Azerbaijani troops had returned to their starting positions. This was followed by a harsh response from Azerbaijan, confirming that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces had not returned to their starting positions. Then it turned out that the Azerbaijanis were strengthening their positions in those territories. What is happening in the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, countries that signed a strategic partnership agreement not so long ago, and where are Armenia and Artsakh in those relations?
– Russian-Azerbaijani relations should be viewed in two contexts: the full-fledged Russian-Turkish rapprochement in 2020 and the Russian-Ukrainian war. I am convinced that the November 9, 2020 Declaration and unpublished agreements are now endangered by Azerbaijan’s “impatience,” which simply stems from a well-founded pessimism about the future of the Putin regime. Putin’s fall may call into question the declaration, especially the unpublished part of it, because the new government, regardless of its composition, will be free from those obligations. Hence, certain convulsions of Azerbaijan, the efforts to complete the process before the possible “x” hour, to resolve the issue in its favor.
Read also
Moreover, it is obvious that Azerbaijan sees a safe option for itself, only without Armenians through Artsakh. In other words, ethnic cleansing has become the main agenda. The case of the Russians is different. Without rejecting the process itself, Russia can not afford to accelerate what will definitely be perceived in the world as a defeat, a retreat, and will intensify the Ukrainian resistance. We must be careful in assessing potentials. It is obvious that the work of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, to put it mildly, is not brilliant, and there is already a lack of reserve and offensive potential. This circumstance is exploited by Aliyev very skillfully, in fact, forcing him to give in with the threat of the second front.
– It is noteworthy that against the background of growing tensions in the world, especially in the South Caucasus, the Armenian authorities continue to “push” their peace agenda. And the last contact between the Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Sahiba Gafarova and the RA NA Speaker Alen Simonyan was quite ridiculous. The Speaker of the Parliament of Azerbaijan, in the presence of the Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia, insisted that there is no territorial concept of “Nagorno-Karabakh.” There is a region of Karabakh, which forms part of the mountainous portion. The RA NA Speaker did not object in his response. Moreover, he claimed that Armenia was ready to sign the peace treaty immediately and the 5 conditions presented by Azerbaijan were acceptable. What is this talking about?
– The current rulers have perfected their own incompetence and ignorance by repeatedly repeating a few primitive formulas-mantras, the skill of concealment. This is the only area where their progress is obvious. Talking about the “Age of Peace” when the world is sitting on a barrel of warm and smoking gunpowder, in addition to the tragicomic impression, also has clear messages that we must read, because it is directly related to our existence. What are those messages?
- The RA government is clearly oriented towards the 2020 foreign policy course based on capitulation,
- It makes no attempt or effort to understand the processes going on,
- Most of all, nothing is done to align the foreign policy with the minimum adjustments,
- They are interested in the possibility of a world war, the resumption of the world political map from the perspective of living at the expense of Armenian taxpayers in relatively legal ways.
- If maintaining that perspective requires extreme losses and concessions from the Armenian nation, from the Republic, it is a completely acceptable price.
If we compare this behavior with the activity of Azerbaijan and the speed of reactions, you will have an idea about our prospects.
– How would you comment on the silence of the opposition toward these events? That silence seems more eloquent.
– The opposition is more dependent on the Kremlin than on the current government. The prospect of Russia’s defeat, I think, is perceived more painfully in this issue. It also stems from the close ties with the Russian capital, the Russian economy and the market that the major shareholders of that type of opposition have. On the other hand, the unconditional victory of Russia will lead to the de facto “voluntary-obligatory” abolition of the Republic of Armenia, which, I hope, is not so unequivocally perceived.
Nelly GRIGORYAN
