And what to expect from the fight between the two predators
Does empire necessarily mean evil? In theory, yes, it would be ideal if any nation aspiring to create a state could realize that desire. In the 20th century, that idea gained more resonance. Communist Lenin and “capitalist” Woodrow Wilson each advanced the concept of self-determination for nations in their way. However, the ideals underpinning the “Union of Soviet Socialist Republics” and “League of Nations” projects could not be fully realized. The first became the same empire, often with violent, criminal manifestations, and the second very quickly disintegrated.
But if we try to move away from perfect ideas and approach the question from a purely pragmatic point of view, then the empires (including the empires where we Armenians lived) in some periods besides the evil brought certain benefits.
Without delving into the history of the centuries, let us record that the Soviet Empire brought a certain level of literacy, industry, science, culture, and other fields that we Armenians did not have in 1920. In the first stage, its advantage was also that the communist project was believed by the citizens of the USSR and millions of people in the world.
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During my lifetime, in the 1970s and 1980s, no one believed in that project either in Armenia or the world, and this became one of the reasons for the disintegration of that empire. However, my generation has advantages over our children and grandchildren. For the first 30 years of my life, from the 1960s to the 1990s, I lived in a generally stable, safe, and secure environment. Maybe I’m wrong, but it gave me and my generation inner peace, self-confidence, and self-sufficiency. Since 1990, when the Soviet regime collapsed, and until today, there has not been a calm, stable situation, and, I fear, it will not be in the coming decades.
In short, the Soviet empire, with all its horrors and cannibalism, brought certain benefits to us and, I believe, to other nations. Empires can only exist and expand (expansion is their modus Vivendi, so they essentially know no boundaries) if they contain ideological, civilization, economic (technological), security, and other resources. The Soviet Union had these resources for a while. And that is the reason why Putin will not succeed in his plans. To put it bluntly, the Russia he leads has none of the resources listed above, nothing to offer the “conquered” nations. At one time, Anatoly Chubais, when he was in charge of RAO UES proposed an economy-based project that he called a “liberal empire.” It was an attempt to rationalize the imperial project, somewhat similar to the idea put forward by Alexander Griboyedov in the 1820s. The famous diplomat and writer proposed to create something similar to the British “East India Company” in Armenia and Georgia.
However, Tsar Nikolai I (Nicholas I-Emperor of Russia) was not enthused by the British model of imperialism. In much the same way, Putin did not try to implement the ideas of Chubais; instead, he listened to people like Dugin, who were proponents of irrational “Third Rome” ideas. And as the first step to restoring stability, he decided to conquer and “subjugate” Ukraine by force of arms. Russia will not succeed because, as I have already said, Putin’s empire has no relevant resources.
This failure is even more acute because most Ukrainians believe in the alternative, the Anglo-American project, thinking that the talks about freedom, democracy, and human rights within it are sincere. I do not believe it, mainly because the West’s support for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan is not conditioned by “democratic ideals.” But anyhow, that project is more rational.
And so, two predators are fighting, of which Russia, trying to implement an archaic, irrational project, has nothing to offer and, by all accounts, will lose (but, of course, will not disappear – the West does not need it, because its main competitor is China). The whole point is that defeating and, as a consequence, leaving the region can take years, perhaps decades. And this is what I want to remind those who are barefoot without seeing the water: During those years or decades, we may incur irreparable losses.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
“Aravot” daily, 28.02.2023
