Compared to the previous census, the permanent population of Armenia decreased by about 90 thousand in 2011-2022. Is it too much or too little? That question doesn’t make sense if we look at the numbers alone. But, following the social processes, it is more important to address the trends. And in this particular case, the birth rate is 1.6. It is known from science that for the population to reproduce, the ratio must be at least 2.1. Let me emphasize that we are talking about reproduction, not increase. In other words, the bold statement that the population of Armenia will reach 5 million in 2050 is as realistic as the other statements made by the Prime Minister.
According to the UN Office in Armenia, if today’s trends continue, the population of Armenia will decrease to 2.6 million in the year 2050 mentioned above. And this will put our state in front of profound political, economic, and security-related problems. If, of course, the Armenian State remains until then.
It is clear that even existing population numbers cannot be maintained by relying on birth rates alone. The way out, of course, is to involve an “external” human resource. And it is not only about Armenians. Of course, the Russian-Ukrainian war is a great disaster, a tragedy. Still, if we look at it purely from a demographic and economic point of view, the transfer of more than 100,000 Russians to our country is undoubtedly a positive fact. We were lucky in this respect because we didn’t do anything for them to come.
Everything should be done for “relocates” to take root in our country, making it easier for them to stay, both in terms of registering a business and obtaining status. After the war ends, most of them will return to their homeland. But if at least 25 percent remains, that will be an outstanding achievement.
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But evidently, more is needed. Pragmatism is required from the state, and society is expected to refrain from prejudices and stereotypes. Citizens of any friendly country who want to settle in Armenia should receive support from both sides.
All that should not oppose the immigration of Armenians but complement it. I do not believe that those Armenians who emigrated to California in the 1990s and, while living there, proudly announced: “as soon as Serzh leaves, we will be back” (thus showing their “ideological” orientation) they will really return to Armenia.
Another thing is the Middle East, where the situation is complicated and, unfortunately, will not stabilize in the coming years. Armenia should welcome our brothers and sisters with open arms who would like to come here.
Handing out maternity benefits is, of course, a good thing. But to say “we are doing everything we can to fix the demographic situation” is an exaggeration, to say the least.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
