by Suren Sargsyan
On July 9-11, the United States hosted NATO’s summit celebrating the 75th anniversary of the organization. Its goal was to unite the Alliance’s 32 member states to address pressing global challenges. The summit was organized at a critical juncture for the organization, as NATO is going through complex geopolitical dynamics and is reaffirming its commitment to collective security. Thus, the summit is a strategic pivot towards securing NATO’s future relevance.
There are also a number of issues which were not included in NATO’s agenda but still shape the geopolitical challenges of the future. These are the upcoming presidential elections in the United States and the European Union (EU) that will undoubtedly influence the future nature of transatlantic cooperation.
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The agenda of the Summit became known only days before the Summit and focused on three pivotal issues outlined by NATO’s Secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. First is boosting allied defense and deterrence: This remains “NATO’s core business,” aimed at enhancing collective defense capabilities amidst evolving security threats. Second is support for Ukraine: Recognized as the most urgent agenda item, NATO will advance unwavering support for Ukraine and “help build a bridge to Ukraine’s future membership.” Third is strengthening global partnerships: With a strategic emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region, NATO seeks to deepen alliances with countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand “to strengthen the vision of peace, security, and prosperity in these two deeply interconnected regions.”
Suren Sargsyan
Of course, it might seem that the NATO summit has nothing to do with Armenia and Azerbaijan, but this is not the case. The Biden administration invited both countries’ foreign ministers to push for peace talks between Yerevan and Baku. No significant agreements were reached during the meeting, but what followed is crucial. The Biden administration and the West are feeling pressured due to the upcoming November elections, with Trump’s chances of winning on the rise. European NATO members are concerned about NATO’s future if Trump is re-elected, and so are working to address issues during Biden’s term, fearing abandonment in facing Russia under a Trump presidency.
Reconciled relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan fall among the core interests of the United States and the NATO agenda. The improvement of relations between the two countries will mean diminished Russian influence in the South Caucasus region which has always been the United States’ and the West’s longstanding priority. Additionally, Armenia’s explicit interest in strengthening and deepening ties with both the United States and the European Union presents an opportunity for the US to capitalize on these developments.
As fostering reconciliation in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations stands as a priority in US foreign policy, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers were invited to the NATO summit in Washington. This was announced by US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien during his visit to Baku. Before the summit, there were no official statements confirming potential peace talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers mediated by the US during the NATO events. However, Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel of the State Department assured that efforts were underway. Specifically, during the press briefing when asked about organizing peace talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, he responded that “this is a priority for us, a priority for the Secretary and other officials across this department. I have no doubt that it’s something we’ll continue to work towards. Specific meetings and engagements on the margins of the summit – I just don’t want to speak to the schedule yet.” Thus, the United States was open in its intentions to advocating for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a stance that is evident in high-level US official discourse.
During a hearing in the House of Representatives at the end of June, Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien underscored that they “are very clear with President Aliyev that this is a time to make peace.” He later reiterated the same message in his official statement following his talks in Baku with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Bayramov: “The US wants a strong relationship with Azerbaijan. We welcome bold leadership to complete a peace agreement with Armenia without delay.”
This concerted effort highlighted the United States’ commitment to facilitating stability and peace in the region as well as diminishing Russia’s influence through diplomatic engagement. In line with their intentions, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken hosted peace talks between Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov on July 10 in Washington, D.C. on the margins of the Washington NATO Summit. Secretary of State Blinken noted that Armenia and Azerbaijan “are very close to being able to reach a final agreement, one that the United States would strongly, strongly support.”
But the statement coming on July 16 from the Spokesperson of the US Department of State Matthew Miller was really shocking. “We do think a deal is possible, but it requires both sides to make some difficult choices and tough compromises, and so what we’re going to do is continue to push them to resolve those final differences and reach an agreement,” the spokesperson said.
This was a really exceptional wording, which means that there was huge pressure put on Armenia in Washington DC to make additional concessions, and to take difficult choices and tough compromises, because it is difficult to imagine why Baku should make such difficult concessions.
Thus, the NATO summit in Washington marked a pivotal moment for the alliance not only because it celebrated the 75th anniversary of the alliance but also addressed pressing global challenges. Amongst NATO’s key priorities, the United States is advocating for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, recognizing it as one of the US foreign policy priorities. The US State Department has actively worked towards reaching a final peace agreement and is most likely to continue these efforts by taking advantage of such an opportunity as Armenia is ready for more concessions.