Companies are anxiously wondering: Can we get hotel rooms? What about the autocratic regime hosting? What if Trump wins?
The once ever-accelerating corporate roadshow at the annual United Nations climate talks is finally slowing down — at least for this year.
Businesses of all stripes are planning to either skip or send smaller delegations to this year’s global COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, wary of the event’s location and logistics, the oil-evangelizing autocratic regime running it and, perhaps most notably, the prospect of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election just days before the November summit begins.
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The expected lighter attendance is an about-face for the industry figures that swarmed last year’s climate talks in Dubai, where companies clamored for coveted access to the summit’s “Blue Zone,” the site of the official negotiations, and splashed out for lavish parties, dinners and hotels.
Some reasons for the pullback are prosaic: There are concerns about getting hotel rooms or even accessing the venue on the outskirts of Baku, the host city. Others are policy-focused: COP29 is expected to be more low-key than Dubai or next year’s talks in Brazil, and companies are already preparing for that event, where nations will finalize climate strategies through 2035.
Then there’s the Trump factor. The climate-skeptic Republican nominee would significantly rattle the global response and message coming out of Baku if he wins.
“I see more instances of companies keeping powder dry or reframing their positions,” said Kevin Book, managing director of consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. “From Europe to boardrooms all over the world, the prospect of a second Trump presidency has caused some questions about how ambitiously corporate players might tackle the next COP.”
COP, incorporated
Of course, none of that means Baku will be devoid of corporate showmanship — or of the big oil and gas firms that regularly descend on the annual United Nations event.
Companies and nonprofits alike flock to the talks, with the roadshow ballooning in recent years as energy firms, financiers and technology startups angle for a slice of the growing green market. They sign up for floor space to promote their wares, host side events and schedule newsmaking announcements to burnish climate credentials.
Many companies also use the negotiations as a dealmaking opportunity with hoards of elected officials milling about the halls. Environmental groups have criticized the schmoozing — the last two talks, held in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, drew complaints over fossil fuel influence. And oil-dependent Azerbaijan has openly called for more fossil fuel investment as it prepares to host.
Yet several obstacles have weighed against companies fully jumping into COP29.
To start, capacity is tighter: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change spokesperson Melita Kolundžić-Stabile said it agreed with Azerbaijan to limit attendance to 40,000, roughly on par with COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland. The booming numbers have made the talks an easy target for claims of hypocrisy as tens of thousands of attendees and hundreds of corporate private jets turn up each year.
More pointedly, though, some businesses are staying away because the U.S. election will be held mere days before COP29. A win for Trump would stymie climate ambition from the world’s largest economy and send shockwaves throughout the global system. If elected, Trump has vowed to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement for a second time.
“The election is just blotting out the sun,” said John Coequyt, director of U.S. government affairs with think tank RMI, which works on strategies to decarbonize the economy. “That is what’s driving the mood around climate going forward.”
To avoid planned COP announcements getting drowned out by the U.S. election, many companies are moving their climate splashes to other forums. Companies have focused in particular on New York City Climate Week in September, which coincides with the U.N. General Assembly, and the U.N. biodiversity conference known as COP16 in Colombia in October.
“In general, if I’m going to do something on climate this fall — and boy, this COP is so uncertain, especially with our election — I’m going to Climate Week,” Dan Byers, vice president for policy with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute, said of corporate America’s viewpoint. The Chamber is still expecting to bring a business delegation to COP29, though it will likely be smaller than Dubai.
The Climate Group, the nonprofit that organizes the New York bash — which entails days of panels, announcements, networking events and cocktail parties — has seen applications for speaker slots spike, with 1,350 applications compared with 650 in 2023.
“We are seeing a boost in terms of the seniority and prestige of speakers who are both approaching us and accepting the invite to speak,” said Rik Goverde, the group’s director of corporate communications, adding the number of c-suite level attendees was also slightly up. “It’s really hard to say why this is happening.”
Verena Radulovic, vice president for business engagement with think tank Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, said the shift is tied to companies wanting to separate their climate messaging from COP.
“Companies are beginning to realize that while COP is valuable, there are other ways in which they can also demonstrate their climate leadership,” Radulovic said.
Traditionally, companies have used COP “to portray that they are serious about climate change,” said Kim Carnahan, CEO of the Center for Green Market Activation, which works to reduce emissions from aviation, chemicals, maritime and other sector supply chains.
“It was always about projecting an image,” added Carnahan, who negotiated at COP for the State Department during the Trump administration. “What we need to be focused on is making sure they’re following through on their commitments.”
As the corporate COP presence has ramped up in recent years, activists have increasingly warned about potential greenwashing and corporate interference, noting that industry climate pledges don’t always result in action.
“I think that corporates who are going to this year’s COP need to be very, very careful about ensuring that they are not putting themselves in harm’s way by associating themselves with similar interests this time around,” said John Morton, a former Biden administration official who now serves as managing director and head of Americas for Pollination, an investment advisory helping businesses lower their carbon footprint.
“It could well be that by making announcements at COP you’re actually undermining your commitment level, as opposed to looking for more, let’s say authentic venues to do that,” Morton added.
Azerbaijan anxiety
Skepticism of Azerbaijan is another factor keeping businesses away from COP29.
Not everyone is convinced Azerbaijan can oversee a quality conference — a perception underscored by the fact Brazil already is lending a hand as it prepares for its high-stakes COP in 2025. The broader uncertainty is rippling through the private sector on both sides of the Atlantic.
“There’s also a sense that we’re in a bit of an interim period. In many ways the more important COP will be after COP29 in Brazil,” said an American business representative who has attended past COPs and was granted anonymity to discuss their company’s planning process. “Azerbaijan itself is not exactly a poster child for getting off fossil fuels.”
The country is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues to power its economy, creating concerns for companies over being associated with greenwashing. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has stated plainly that oil- and gas-producing nations like his should continue investing in the sector, clashing with last year’s COP28 outcome in which all nations called for accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.
On top of that, Azerbaijan’s civil service is viewed as less capable than the United Arab Emirates’ government officials.
“[There is] not much hype about Azerbaijan from industry,” said one senior UK energy industry official who was granted anonymity to discuss internal plans. The official called it a “poor choice of host (again) that people feel nervous about.”
Fewer businesses from the UK will attend COP29 than last year — and those that do will send fewer people, said Beverly Cornaby, director of the UK Corporate Leaders Group, a coalition of businesses supporting emissions reductions.
Financial institutions are also foregoing COP29 travel despite the focus of the negotiations on setting a new collective goal for marshaling finance from rich nations to developing ones, said Nina Seega, director of the Centre for Sustainable Finance at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership.
Part of the problem for U.S. companies is even getting to Baku — there are no direct flights. On some level, the decision is also entirely human: Baku is less appealing from a tourism perspective, noted several people with whom POLITICO spoke.
Logistical concerns were so prominent that they came up at a June meeting hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Ogtay Mammadov, coordinating board member of the COP29 operating company, tried to assuage business leaders, calling the stadium housing the event “well positioned,” close to major transport hubs and only six kilometers outside the city.
It’s not convincing doubters.
“People don’t trust that it’s going to be as good,” said Frank Maisano, a partner at Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group, which represents energy industry clients. “People were really focused on Dubai last time. I don’t think they’re as focused on Azerbaijan.”
Zack Colman and Sara Schonhardt reported from Washington, Zia Weise from Brussels and Karl Mathiesen from London. Charlie Cooper contributed to this report from London.
