Judging by the anxious, almost reflexive posts that Civil Contract members and their allies are putting out in response to the formation of large opposition groupings, it’s clear that this development genuinely unsettles them. Their reactions aren’t just the old, now-cliché slogans — “No us, no peace,” “No us, no independence” — which already sound somewhat simplistic. New themes are being added: for example, “we won’t allow oligarchs to come to power.” As if there are no oligarchs among their own ranks — or as if no oligarchs ever give money to their foundations.
So what’s driving this nervousness? It seems Civil Contract was hoping to replicate the 2021 scenario, where Nikol Pashinyan’s main competitor was Robert Kocharyan — a figure whom thousands of voters, even some anti-Pashinyan ones, had strong reasons to vote against. Personally, even I find Kocharyan preferable to Pashinyan at this point. But it’s obvious that the second president is no longer the central opposition leader.
Neither Samvel Karapetyan nor Gagik Tsarukyan carries the same level of unfavourability ratings as Kocharyan. It’s predictable that the government’s propaganda apparatus will try to tie them to Kocharyan — and there may be some who naively believe it. But there’s a big difference between a contest where many voters’ actual adversary is on the ballot, and one where people are urged to see certain candidates as Kocharyan’s proxies without any solid justification.
Another option for the authorities would be to try to set opposition forces against each other. But the main opposition leaders are experienced — I’m confident they can see through such a crude tactic. I also expect that Kocharyan himself and his allies won’t fall for such traps.
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What Civil Contract fears is a sort of repeat of the Gyumri scenario, where opposition forces united against a Civil Contract candidate — and won. Probably there’s reason for that fear. I also worry about that scenario, but from a different angle: in Gyumri, a mayor was elected, and then Pashinyan — using investigative bodies, the prosecutor’s office, and the courts under his influence — effectively “nullified” that opposition victory.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
