Yesterday General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in his interview to CBS that Iran had the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz for a period of time, and that in that case U.S. would take action to reopen it. At the end of last and the beginning of this year, US together with Israel on the one part and Iran on the other demonstrate military force, hold military exercise and “deployment” around this strategically important strait through which, according to some estimates, 30% of world oil transported via sea passes. US named this “deployment” “Austere Challenge 12” and apparently intend to defend oil interests of the West seriously. Iransimilarly intends to seriously blackmail the same West. As a result, the price for Brent oil has grown since January for 5%. On the background of the ongoing talks that Iran has nuclear weapon this escalation looks highly explosive.
What can be the consequences of this for us, for Armenia? First of all, the price for gas will certainly grow. If Iran fulfils its threats completely and provokes world oil crisis, the price can grow by up to 30-50%. By some incomprehensible economic regularity, when world prices for oil grow, the price for the imported gas in Armenia grows as well, but when the world price goes down, here it stays the same. But it’s half the trouble. The trouble will occur if US and Iran could not restrain their ambitions and start a war in the region. And if it is a nuclear war, it will be not a trouble but a disaster. Indeed, it is an austere challenge for the incipient year.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
