So, it is obvious that the Armenian National Congress (ANC) pins its hopes in this election campaign on the fact that the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), winning sufficient votes, will be able to take an opposition or semi-opposition attitude toward Serzh Sargsyan, as a result of which the current president’s government will weaken and Levon Ter-Petrossian will have more chances in the upcoming presidential election. Its indirect testimonies are mutual reverences, Vartan Oskanian’s and Hmayak Hovhannisyan’s opoposition statements, as well as the fact that the first and the third presidents’ propaganda is directed against the Heritage Party, as if it is very important whether that party will have a parliamentary group consisting of 5-7 members or not.
In a nutshell, the ANC, sensing that it doesn’t have sufficient human and financial resources, decided to struggle “against the regime” using the resources of the PAP. Let’s put aside how much, in the end, it will harm the “regime,” the roots of which are deeper than the “evil will” of a certain party or a certain individual (including the three presidents). The problem is that the calculation is wrong to begin with – taking such an attitude the ANC grants his voters to the PAP.
If one is an extreme oppositionist, has a certain reputation and he says that there are intolerable, nation-destructing, disastrous bandits represented by the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and there are more or less tolerable, “sour-sweet” and even a bit pleasant bandits represented by the PAP in the same government, it means that one calls for voting not for his own political force, but for the very PAP. Why is it so under the Armenian conditions? 1. Because our conservative and cautious citizens don’t follow extremists, shouters, as a rule, and prefer “those in the government caring for the people,” 2. Because not only in our country, but also everywhere voters consider the issue pragmatically – if they don’t want to vote for the government, they have to unite around the most powerful, the one that has the most chances to “pass” in the other pole. Thus, in 1996, the considerable part of Sergey Badalyan’s Communist electorate passed to Vazgen Manukyan and in 1998, the latter’s electorate was handed over to Karen Demirchyan etc.
I have no doubts that the RPA and the PAP will form an alliance after the election. I don’t even bet just humanely – why should I use people’s naivety? I doubt another thing – whether the ANC will win 7% after these altruistic games. I hope it will.
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ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
