According to Rauf Mirgadirov, a political analyst of Zerkalo, “it doesn’t yield anything, besides a show and flag-wavers’ chants.”
* Mr. Mirgadirov, the position of the Azeri government on the issue of the Stepanakert airport is rather negative, whereas there are land communications between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh; besides, this issue seems to be a new excuse for stalemating the Karabakh negotiating process. Why does this issue receive such a response?
* I think that the issue has a few aspects. First of all, let us consider it from the legal perspective, and in this sense, Azerbaijan’s position is very strong. Many people don’t take into account that air communications are regulated by international treaties, every international flight must get an international confirmation. So the issue could have been solved theoretically, if Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s respective institutions had been able to agree, but in that case, Armenia doesn’t want it, since it considers Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state and thinks that this issue is exceptionally between Armenia and Karabakh. However, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are parties to international treaties, and this issue is regulated in that area. Azerbaijan uses that in the legal field, and I think that it does the right thing. The other aspect of the issue is why such an issue arises when the sides assert that they are interested in the settlement of the conflict. Moreover, the sides take steps that escalate the conflict – for example, Safarov’s extradition, the issue of the airport. If the Safarov case is more explicit, and from the short-term perspective, both sides are offered an opportunity of exploiting that event for advertising, then the airport issue may escalate the situation from the long-term perspective – for example, in order to prevent any flight, according to the domino principle, military operations may resume with unpredictable consequences. The governments of both sides of the conflict realize that the peoples are tired of this conflict. Therefore, some
ostentatious steps are needed that “we can take this step,” “we can do this too….” They brought Ramil Safarov, so what…? What does Azerbaijan gain…? It yields nothing, besides a show and flag-wavers’ support and chants. The same thing applies to the issue of the airport; what will Armenia gain…? I think given the sum of money spent on it, it won’t yield much benefit, unless the conflict is settled. Suppose there are two flights a week from Armenia; no serious, self-respecting air company will make flights to Karabakh, because big air companies make flights to Baku and will not wish to lose the Azeri market due to making flights to Karabakh, moreover, destinations in Azerbaijan are not confined to Baku alone, there are other Azeri cities as well. So saying that it is of humanitarian importance, when there are no internal flights in Armenia, I think it is not so; it is also a merely ostentatious step, in order to show to society that some step is taken to put into effect the idea of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence. These are just ostentatious steps taken both by Armenia and by Azerbaijan.
* Akram Aylisli, an Azeri writer, was pressured by both governmental and non-governmental organizations in Azerbaijan after his novel “Stone Dreams” had been published in Druzhba Narodov, a Russian monthly. Mr. Mirgadirov, what is the reason for such an intolerant attitude of Azeri society, in your opinion?
* Let me answer with a question; how will they treat you, if you state now that you recognize the “Khojalu genocide”…? What response will there be…? This issue also has different aspects. That novel is a political work; it was the author’s message sent to the Armenian and Azeri societies. However, neither Armenian nor Azeri society, I should say intellectuals, took note of that message. We approach the most important issue here; are the societies ready to listen to this or that message or call…? This is the important issue. Akram Aylisli had the right to that message, and I defended him, I wrote that it was absurd what was going on in Azeri society – burning books etc. However, it is obvious that there was no serious debate on the purpose of that novel, and the messages were not successful; there was no response from the Armenian side, and Azeri society responded to that accordingly?
* What is the situation in Azerbaijan? We know that there were protests; there is discontent. Is that only social discontent or also political? Is there danger of losing power in Azerbaijan?
* There is a political system in Armenia – no matter good or bad – with its rules of the game, whereas in Azerbaijan, the political system is destroyed. Formally, there are opposition parties that criticize, but they are at the level of enthusiasts’ club; they gather, talk, and leave. Basically, they have no influence on the political system; the government has destroyed that, and this is the worst case, because it is not possible to predict anything in such a situation. There are manifestations of discontent, there are protests. But when will potential energy turn into actions…? It is energy of the mob’s self-organization; those are discontent groups, which are out of the political system? As in the Arab world, it was the mob’s revolution, not that of the political system; it was just that the discontent was ripe, and suddenly, there were explosions for different reasons. No one can predict where it will happen and from what it will start in Azerbaijan. There may be an explosion in five years, in two months, or in two days. The society in Azerbaijan has awoken; the society is tired of such stability. It is stability for them; it is stability created by them, for them [he means the government]. How long can this last…? Generally, when serious problems arise both in our country and in your country, the governments start to talk about stability and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Well, the most stable condition is in the crematorium and in the grave; let’s turn the country into a grave, and everything will be very stable…. However, it cannot be so; people get tired. How long can the same people be in power? Everyone wants to live well. Yes, the discontent in Azerbaijan is of social nature, but in Baku, for example, there is discontent with the fact that soldiers die under peaceful conditions. The youth take to the streets; so this is a political problem related to the commander-in-chief, the president.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
Aravot Daily
