Armenia’s strategic partner, President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin’s statement in Baku that Nagorno Karabakh conflict should be resolved through political methods has become a flag in the hands of representatives of dominant political force in Armenia. It has been two days since the representatives of ruling Republican Party referring this statement in different interpretations qualify that it is a “cold shower”, a “slap” or some like that for Azerbaijan. Interestingly, what public announcement the President of Minsk Group co-chair country should make. Should Putin speak publicly about the military solution of NKR problem after selling four billion dollars weapons to Azerbaijan?
Speaking about these issues in a conversation with “Aravot”, the former ANM board member Shahen Petrosyan noted that RF has long ago its visions and approaches to the resolution of NKR issue in Madrid principles, which are entirely political, and the President of OSCE Minsk Group member country could not make other statement, “I do not know what they were talking about. May be, Putin has whispered in Aliyev’s ear “you will attack, our “Smerch” will do a good job”. I do not know. But what else could he say in public,”- said our interlocutor, recalling some cases of ethnic cleansing from the international history, in which no leader has made an obvious statement about exterminations, everyone was saying that they are establishing law and order in the country.
Bringing an example from the modern period of Armenia, Mr. Petrosyan is asking the authorities of Armenia,- “On March 1, when the slaughter happened in Armenia, did they declare that they are going to kill people? The announced that they are establishing rule and order. Creating rule and order is a political solution, but to rejoice from it that see, what Putin said, it is а tautology. It is the same as the authorities say that the sun rises and sets down by their command.”
But our interlocutor has the impression from Putin’s visit to Baku that RF faces the problem of not losing the “arms market”. “A great race of markets will launch in the world. RF is gradually losing its arms markets, and selling of ammunition is the most lucrative business, especially when the highest levels of ruling class are intermingled with the business. Not to lose the market, RF, I do not know for what deals, forced Azerbaijan to buy the weapon. And since RF needs to train the professionals to employ the weapon, Azerbaijan falls into dependence on RF as it is now with Armenia. By the way, Azerbaijan has spare money, Armenia does not, otherwise Armenia would have bought the weapon.”
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The fact that being in the so-called Turkish alliance, Azerbaijan does not buy weapons from NATO, and is trying to deepen cooperation in Caspian region, gives reasons for our interlocutor to believe that accordingly RF is try to isolate the western companies. “With “Rosneft”, RF enters among the companies, who own the Caspian oil bases. Western companies are working with a normal percentage ratio, not with rollbacks, and something in there was probably not beneficial for Aliev, therefore he is starting to work with Russians, because the option of rollback works well here.” Shahen Petrosyan does not rule out that Aliev will go for these steps for the sake of being independently “reelected” for the third term, and RF would not try to complicate his office in support of Ibragimbekov. Our interlocutor said that oligarchic and dependent government is also beneficial to RF.
To the point, Shahen Petrosyan is against the hysteria produced in Armenia regarding selling of weapons to Azerbaijan by RF: “Armenia should not poke its nose into the business of others, it should mind its own business and become a factor. Azerbaijan is a factor due to its wealth, but the issue of Armenia is to become a factor, and the only potential of being a factor for us is the democratic system, western values, in which we are supposed to be the bearer.” In this respect, however, the interlocutor was not so much encouraged by the developments in the EU Association Agreement, because Shahen Petrosyan was not so confident that Armenia will sign the Agreement in November in Vilnius.
He even made a bet that at the last moment pressure would be imposed against Armenia, and, to maintain its power, RA authorities would again bring Armenia under the influence of Russia. Certainly, our interlocutor says this with pain. Despite everything, he considers the signing of the Association Agreement right, he believes that after all a “normal step” will be taken, but again he feels sorry that it is still coercive. “We constantly get coercion from either this, or that side. And there is no initiative, at all. Wasn’t the same Armenian-Turkish story compulsory? It was compulsory due to the West recognized Serzh a President in 2008, and the Russians did everything that it does not happen, because good-neighborly relations between Armenia and Turkey are not beneficial to Russians.”
As for the interpretations that RF President did not come to Armenia, Shahen Petrosyan considers that it is not essential: “If necessary, he could have compelled by a phone call.”
Nelly GRIGORYAN
