Vigilance by Armenia would not hurt
Recently, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, on one occasion, referring to the Eastern Partnership, noted that the EU will touch upon its issues and long-term prospects prior to the upcoming conference in Riga, in 2015. “As of today, Ukraine, Russia’s exerted pressures, the attempts to destabilize the situation in Moldova, and the pressure, which probably would be employed against Georgia are more urgent.”
Recently, Stephen Blank, the American Foreign Policy Council expert on Russian issues, expressed his opinion in the Wall Street Journal, in the article with the headline “Last chance for Europe in Ukraine,” saying that in 1990s, the Europe, after the failure of diplomacy in Yugoslavia, received the second chance of displaying a successful diplomatic strategy. The author believes that upon the end of the Sochi Olympic Games Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration will do everything possible to maintain its political positions in Ukraine, if the U.S. and EU fail to jointly operate in Ukraine. “The same situation recurs in Ukraine, like in Georgia: thousands of Russian passports are granted to residents of Crimea, and the pro-government forces, which are created in the eastern regions, may act from Russia’s side in the event of a conflict,” said the American expert.
After the Olympic Games, the possible exerting of more increasing pressures by the Russian side had begun to be touched upon more and more often, moreover, without excluding the the possibility of pressures against Georgia. Meanwhile, Tbilisi has no intention of joining the Customs Union, moreover, it is moving towards European Association with more consistent and fairly rapid paces, rumors are circulated that Georgia will sign the EU Association Agreement in August, this year.
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On this background, the topic of possible meeting with Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili and Vladimir Putin has recently become a hot subject. The RF President even assured Georgian mass media in Sochi that he is ready to meet with Margvelashvili if he wants to. Giorgi Margvelashvili, in his turn, did not rule out the possibility of the meeting, and also added if such a meeting can be a positive impetus to Russian-Georgian relations, if Russia is willing to discuss problematic topics, sober conferences will be organized.
“Georgian-Russian relations are the most serious problems in our agenda, hence we must be able to seriously analyze this replica voiced by Putin,” said Margvelashvili. Later, Georgia’s Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili, came up with a statement, noting that they are ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin. The Georgian Foreign Minister, Maia Panjikidze, believes that Putin-Margvelashvili meeting stems from the current logic of bilateral relations. “It should be clearly understood that the organization for this meeting will require quite a lot of time and efforts. The Presidents meeting can not take place today or tomorrow. If we begin working in this direction, it must be follow by specific results. Georgia’s leadership, however, is not ready to such a meeting.”
Note that the Tbilisi-Sochi direct flight opened on the days for Winter Olympic Games will continue to operate after the end of the Games. This was said by Putin, personally, at the Public Council session involved in the preparation of the Olympic Games in Sochi. “All this will create good preconditions for normalization of relations. Georgia is our closest neighbor, we are correlated with close and long-standing relationships. I hope that the tragedies of the past remain in the past,” said Putin.
Official Tbilisi and Moscow are getting ready to seriously consider the possibility of organizing a meeting between Presidents Putin and Margvelashvili, informed Grigory Karasin, RF Deputy Foreign Minister, a few days ago, adding that they are getting ready to meet with Zurab Abashidze, Prime Minister’s Special Representative for Relations with Russia, in early March.
It is difficult to predict what outcome the Russian-Georgian negotiations will have in the preparation of the meeting between the presidents, and if the meeting is held, how the Russian-Georgian relations will proceed.
It’s hard to predict what Putin has planned for Tbilisi, and whether the Kremlin is ruminating over wrecking the signing of the EU Association Agreement in upcoming months. But the fact that the Ukrainian events shows the new Russian touch police against the former Soviet republics, is unequivocal.
Armenia- Georgia relations, in this sense, can appear in quite delicate situation. Using the Armenian factor against Georgia, there is no need to explain how much it can be destructive to our relations with the neighboring country. The vigilance from the Armenian side, perhaps, does not hurt if the plans of Russian authorities one day go too far for Georgia.
Emma GABRIELYAN
