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Armenia in a complex geopolitical stage

December 23,2014 17:43

EU remains one of the most important partners of Armenia

Armenia, although in a few days, will be officially joining the Eurasian Economic Union, however, in recent days, with regard to co-relation with the EU, remarkable statements were voiced, which inspired a hope for optimism in the sense that after the difficult period created after September 3 is step by step overcome. Recently, Serzh Sargsyan received Professor Spyridon Flogaitis, President of the Board of Directors of the European Public Law Organization (EPLO), who has arrived in Armenia to participate in the official inauguration of the organization’s new branch in Yerevan. In the meeting with him, Serzh Sargsyan noted that Armenia too advocates European values, and since independence, it has been cooperating with its European partners, is making considerable progress in that direction, though, in the President’s words, there are numerous issues that yet to be tackled.” Serzh Sargsyan stressed that Armenia will continue in the same vein, expecting the support of its partners, including the EPLO. Later, in Brussels, Serzh Sargsyan attended the summit of the European People’s Party, by the EPP extended format, after which he met with EPP President Joseph Daul. They discussed the EU-Armenia relations development prospects, as well as current challenges and problems. S. Sargsyan had reaffirmed Armenia’s willingness and interest in further partnership with EPP, and added, “The European Union has been and continues to be one of the most important partners of Armenia.” This week, it became evident that the European Union will provide 10 million euros to Armenia for implementation of new projects. This information is informed by Head of the EU Delegation, Ambassador Traian Hristea.

“Today, the European Union signed around 15 agreements on regional cooperation with Armenia in various aspects, ranging from the development of agriculture and rural communities up to establishment of human rights and democracy, support to parentless children, sustainable urban development and so on. It noteworthy to mention that only four of these agreements are aimed at poverty reduction,” mentioned Hristea. According to him, the EU will deepen its relations with Armenia and is ready to strengthen bilateral cooperation. The European diplomat stressed that the EU continues to remain Armenia’s number one partner in foreign trade sector, by about 27 percent of trade volume. EU countries, probably, realizing that no president of Armenia could withstand Russia’s pressures, have come to the conclusion that they should not deny Armenia joining the EaEU, especially when the viability of the EaEU in general is apparently under question.

Armenia’s northern neighbor moved one more step ahead

On December 18, the European Parliament ratified the Association Agreement between Georgia and the EU. The Association Agreement signed with Georgia is already ratified by 10 parliaments of 28 EU member states. At the moment of ratifying the document, third and fourth Presidents of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili and Giorgi Margvelashvili respectively, were at the European Parliament Conference Hall. Despite the tension between them, during the press conference proceeding ratification ceremony, Margvelashvili also spoke about Saakashvili’s contribution on the way to European integration. “Since the achievement of independence, all leaders of my country, starting from the first President Gamsakhurdia, later on Shevardnadze and Saakashvili, also our leadership, we all have always been committed to our ultimate goal. And this goal is very definite: to become a full member of the European single family, the European Union,” mentioned Margvelashvili. Armenian-Georgian relations of strategic importance will appear in a quite important phase. On the one hand, Armenia’s authorities joining the EaEU, on the other hand, Georgian leadership being associated with the EU promise that the fact of composing a part to different unions by the two countries should not be an obstacle to the Armenian-Georgian relations. Here, it only remains to hope that no any third party can cause cracks in relations with Georgia that are of vital importance for Armenia, relationship, which in recent years, in honor of the leaders of the two countries, however, have been effective.

“Nagorno-Karabakh is not a part of Armenia,” said Belarus, which also ratified Armenia’s agreement for the accession to the EaEU

Russia’s Federal Council approved Armenia’s membership of the EaEU Treaty, according to which Armenia joins the EaEU Treaty, as well as other international documents that were signed within the Customs Union. Ratified Treaty provides for a transitional period of 1-8 years to make Armenia’s Customs import duties in compliance with the Custom’s common tariff. According to this document, Armenia becomes a full member of the Union together with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. On December 18, the Kazakh parliament’s lower house approved the bill of the agreement of Armenia’s accession to the EaEU. “Armenia’s membership to the EaEU plays a great role as we cooperate with Armenia, and this cooperation will help to develop our economies,” said the minister of economy of Kazakhstan, yesterday. According to the Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy, the trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Armenia amounts to 7.7 million dollars. On December 19, the Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan, the Upper Chamber, adopted the law on ratification of the agreement of Armenia’s accession to the EaEU Treaty. On the same day, the Belarusian parliament ratified Armenia’s agreement to join the EaEU Treaty. Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus Alexander Mikhnevich, presenting the ratification bill of Armenia’s accession to the Treaty, stressed that Nagorno-Karabakh will not be included in the composition of the EaEU after Armenia’s membership. “We had concerns that the territories that are not included in the composition of Armenia can appear in the composition of the Customs Union. The Armenia side demonstrated an understanding to this requirement and this desire. The Agreement encloses a note saying that Nagorno-Karabakh does not constitute a part of the Republic of Armenia. An official verbal statement was voiced by the Armenian side.” With preservation of security of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, those who justify our country’s membership to the EaEU, probably, would find new excuses on this.

EaEU vague future and member countries’ distrust of Russia

The leaders of EaEU member states continue making harsh criticism against Russia’s policy. “We only wish inner calm and peace. We are not a great country, but our army is strong enough to protect our country. We will do everything to protect peace and social equality in our country. I would like to talk to the President of the Russian Federation and find out why the Russian Federation pursues such policy towards our country,” said the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko recently. He added that today, only 40-45% of goods is sold in the Russian market instead of 85%, as it was previously, and mentioned that Belarus has reduced the dependence on the market, “but it is still not enough.” Moreover, Lukashenko instructed the government of the country to trade with Russia in euros and dollars, and had noted that Belarus should long have demanded the payment from Russia in dollars and euros, like they are “paying for the energy.” In addition, Russia and Belarus mutually have prohibited imports of certain products. “We can’t all the time pray for the Russian market for ever, although this brotherly country. Because, you see, this market has collapsed and we collapsed right after that. Yes, there was a time when we were selling 85 % of our products in the Russian market, but today, it is 40-45 percent,” mentioned Lukashenko, adding that the situation in Ukraine aggravates the situation, which was their main partners, and as for the Kazakhstan market, the Belarusian leader also predicts a collapse. “I must note that such a situation never happened.” Quite complex financial-economic situation in Russia, which was created because of Western sanctions, as well as decline in oil prices, so far does not inspire hope that Russia is capable to build peer-to-peer relationship in this structure with partner countries. During the traditional year-end press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the topic of the Customs Union. “Kazakhstan, as well as the Russian Federation, is a gas and oil producing country, so regardless of the integration under the Eurasian Economic Union, one way or another, Kazakhstan – as well as Russia – is facing an unfavorable economic scenario. Will we be able to handle this situation? I have already said that we will inevitably emerge from this situation with positive results.” If it is too early to speak about the positive results of the Customs Union, on the other hand, however, it is obvious that the leaders of member countries currently do not trust Russia. Armenia joining the EaEU had appeared in reshuffling region in terms of geopolitics, where the dividing lines may leave the most negative aftereffects particularly on development capacities of Armenia than on Russia’s other allies.

Emma GABRIELYAN

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