“We had the lowest birth rate in 2001-2002 when only 32,000 children were born, of which less than half were boys. Now count how many we lost and what the consequences will be,” demographer Ruben Yeganyan said at the Henaran press club regarding the negative demographic developments, and that Armenia can expect to face serious consequences in terms of demographics and migration.
However, Ruben Yeganyan said that there is no clear picture regarding the current situation surrounding migration due to the fact that there are people among those leaving who are simply going on business trips for several days, temporary migrants who are going to work and come back, and people leaving for other reasons. “Between 80-100 thousand people leave the country to work and come back. This phenomenon is not new for our country. This has been taking place since the 1960s.”
He considered it to be normal that huge waves of people were traveling to Russia because, in his opinion, the borders to Russia were closed for one year, and the majority of people in Armenia have relatives in Russia, and those trips accumulated and were postponed.
The demographer was unable to say how much the outflow of people will increase or if the volume of inflows will decrease given the post-war situation. In Yeganyan’s opinion, a new study is needed in order to understand the extent of the shift, to what extent it will exceed the volume of previous years, and what the consequences will be. However, according to him, the government is not prepared to conduct such a study yet, and it is pointless to rely on local governments for this.
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Yeganyan said that the purpose of a new study isn’t to have numbers, but to get a picture of how people have reviewed their migration behaviors after the war. “If the volume of emigration increases and young people make up the majority of those leaving, we will have negative economic, social, and demographic consequences. Without that, we suffered a major demographic attack in having so many casualties and injuries.
In his opinion, it is possible for there to have been large numbers of emigrants if the coronavirus did not take place; Europe is closed, and conditions are poor in Russia. He also said that the consequences of the 2018 revolution did not have a major impact on migration, but they were visible. “Around 30,000 people emigrated every year until 2018. Around 20-25 thousand emigrated in 2019.”
Ruben Yeganyan has doubts that the government’s plans to increase the birth rate will play any role.
“Our mental state has been damaged. Aside from that, people have essentially lost their hope and faith in the future, which both the ruling party and opposition played a role in. The majority of people do not trust anyone, and they do not rely on anyone.”
Lusine Budaghyan
