During the last question-and-answer session between the National Assembly and the government, the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan stated that the Azeri soldiers (customs officers, border guards, it does not matter what we call them) have the right to stop cars coming from Iran. The basis for such actions, according to the Prime Minister, is that those sections of the road belonged to Soviet Azerbaijan. According to recent Soviet maps, some sections of the Goris-Kapan road actually entered the Azerbaijani SSR, then continued through the territory of the Armenian SSR. If we follow that logic, then modern Armenia and Azerbaijan should build several customs checkpoints on that highway, which, of course, is absurd.
Let’s try again to refrain from emotional descriptions and go deeper into the question of what consequences our authorities’ approach may have. Let us first consider Armenia-Iran economic relations. If such actions by Azerbaijan become regular, Iranian companies will be reluctant to send and receive goods that way. The rest of the detours are difficult for heavy trucks at the moment (if not impassable). Of course, an alternative road must be built. But experts say it will cost tens of millions of dollars and at least three years if construction begins today. How will cargo transportation with Iran be carried out during those three (or more) years? In my opinion, negotiations with the participation of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran should be started outside the demarcation and delimitation agenda to ensure the unimpeded traffic of Armenian and Iranian vehicles on that highway. Demarcation and delimitation should be done in the future as well, but it is a long, time-consuming process, and the parties seem to be far from even starting that work.
But in the long run, the road that is currently operating continues to remain a threat, and other forms of communication will operate. This, in turn, I fear, will have negative economic consequences. If our settlements are cut off from the main highway, it can be said for sure that it will have negative consequences in terms of economic activity. Given this fact, the Ministry of Economy (perhaps with European partners) should develop special programs for these settlements.
Anyways, the situation is complicated. Do our authorities even realize that this situation has arisen?
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Aram Abrahamyan
