During the past week, the Armenian government has taken steps that indicate the intention to change our state’s military-political orientation drastically. We are talking, in particular, about the declarations in the National Assembly to ratify the Rome Statute and conduct joint Armenian-American military exercises. Any move should be considered not in terms of being “right” or “wrong” in the abstract but in terms of the political context of the moment.
The Rome Statute should have been ratified long ago, at least after the April 2016 war, when the Aliyev regime committed obvious war crimes. But as the Americans say, timing is everything: it is essential when you make your move. On May 17 of this year, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin; in particular, he is accused of the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. That order means that in a country that has ratified the Rome Statute, Putin must be arrested. Of course, I doubt that after landing at “Zvartnots” airport, Minister of Internal Affairs Vahe Ghazaryan will approach the Russian President’s plane and put handcuffs on Putin, but the important thing here, I repeat, is the political trend.
The same refers to the Armenian-American military exercises. Yes, they also happened before, and in the past, our service members also participated in the operations of the Western coalition. But in the past, Russia and the USA were not at actual war. I have a low opinion of the intellectual abilities of the current rulers of Armenia, but they understand the political context. They are deliberately taking the steps above to break away from Russia and sign a military-political alliance with the West.
There is nothing incorrect with that; Russia’s behavior, particularly in the Berdzor Corridor, motivates to think in that direction. The problem is how well thought out and calculated these steps are and whether the West has provided “alternative security guarantees.”
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The pro-Western supporters of government say yes, everything is calculated, and the guarantees are given. They may meet with employees of European or American embassies and have some insider information. But, as far as I know, there are no external signs of guarantees. I expect official statements, not assurances from preachers.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
