Why did the “victorious” leader decide to prove once again the “legitimacy” of his power and the legitimacy of the single-handed “victory” in the war?
The more often and arrogantly Aliyev repeats the “closed Karabakh problem” and “victory in the heroic patriotic war,” the more prominent Aliyev’s fears are, even some panicky moods. Aliyev is aware that the “victory” given to him with the active support of Turkey and the tacit support of Russia is not his, and the West also clearly knows this. Alone, without other “heroes” of the war, Aliyev, hosting a military parade in Stepanakert, proves precisely that with his actions.
He calculated that after the 44-day war, along with the acceptance of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, the geopolitical centers would remain silent in the case of his plans for the rights of the Artsakh Armenians, as well as in the case of planning military operations against the sovereign territory of Armenia. In the case of Russia, which co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group, Aliyev and Erdogan did not have a problem and still do not have one; Moscow’s “neutrality” has been guaranteed for a long time. However, in the case of the USA and France, Aliyev’s calculations were wrong. Washington and Paris made it clear that they will not remain silent on the issue of the rights of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Aliyev will have problems in case of encroachments on the territorial integrity of Armenia, so this is a red line.
Read also
The pressure from the West intensified so much that Aliyev’s tone changed noticeably in recent weeks. In this regard, the comprehensive speech of the President of Azerbaijan at the beginning of December, in the forum “Karabakh; return home after 30 years, achievements and difficulties,” during which he kept repeating: “We have already established peace in the region.” “We have done it militarily.” “We have shown how peace can be achieved through military force.”
Aliyev’s allusions to the USA and France were quite transparent. “They were wrong; Azerbaijan showed how to achieve peace through force, and we have proved that this conflict had a military solution.”
Aliyev, who has been boycotting meetings initiated by the West for a long time, suddenly announced that a new meeting with the participation of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the President of the European Council is being discussed. ” I personally and Azerbaijan have always supported Charles Michel’s efforts to stop the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He organized several meetings in Brussels. Now we are discussing a possible new meeting.”
As for the somewhat strained relations with Washington, Aliyev expressed hope that he will learn from the United States Department of State representative that the relations between Baku and Washington are returning to the previous level. It was unexpected that Aliyev publicly noted the first case of tension in the history of bilateral relations with the United States. It was a clear message to the U.S.- Baku will abandon the Washington platform if relations with Baku are not restored.
Here is that part of Aliyev’s speech. “There was a meeting in Washington, but now this direction has been put aside because the representative of the U.S. State Department (James O’Brien, Assistant Secretary Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs of the U.S. Department of State), who is now in Baku, announced that their relations with Azerbaijan are no longer the same as before and accused Azerbaijan. If he made such a statement, relations would be different in all directions.
We understood it that way. He (O’Brien) announced that restrictions would be applied to high-ranking officials of Azerbaijan in case of visiting the USA. It was the first case in the entire history of our relations with the USA. Our countries had a strategic relationship, and this administration has nullified that. We are still determining what the reason is. We said, “It’s good if the high-ranking officials of Azerbaijan cannot visit the USA, then how will our foreign minister go there? Can you explain how it will happen if a meeting is organized,” Aliyev said. He expressed hope that relations with the USA would be restored; otherwise, according to him, only the Brussels and Moscow platforms would remain for them in the negotiation process.
Thus, Aliyev’s extensive speech in the context of James O’Brien’s visit was a response to the USA, from which pressure has been exerted on him for a long time. In addition to Aliyev’s public assessments, there are also “dark” pages. In particular, Arif Yunusov, an Azerbaijani exile expert, spoke about it recently. According to his conviction, the American official should also receive clarifications from Aliyev in Baku about “how it turned out that Russia transferred all the military equipment and weapons handed over by the Karabakh Armenians to the Ukrainian front at the end of September with the consent of Azerbaijan.” As is well known, we are discussing a lot of equipment and weapons.
In this atmosphere, Aliyev surprised everyone by signing a decree on holding extraordinary presidential elections on February 7. As a reminder, the next presidential elections in Azerbaijan were scheduled for October 2025. Some Azerbaijani experts explain his decision as “a choice in favor of Russia.”
Thus, according to the analyst, Aliyev protects himself from possible criticism, aiming to strengthen his power. It is not difficult to guess from whose possible criticism Aliyev is defending himself and why the “victorious” leader decided to prove once again the “legitimacy” of his government and the legitimacy of the single-handed “victory” in the war.
Emma GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily newspaper, 21.12.2023
The publication was produced within the project “Competing Narratives” implemented by Media Initiatives Center and n-ost.
