We still struggle to decipher the diplomatic signals coming from various countries. By “we,” I mean officials, commentators, and the general public alike. When Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Armenia, the “Westerners” rushed to remind us how terrible Lavrov and Putin are, while the “pro-Russians” concluded that Lavrov had sternly warned Armenian authorities to “behave wisely”—or face consequences.
I don’t claim to be the ultimate interpreter of these signals. I simply want the reader to move beyond judgmental clichés and try to assess the situation with a clear head, free of unnecessary emotion.
In this context, two developments stand out.
First, almost simultaneously with Lavrov’s visit, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio stated that the threat of an Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia is real. This is unlikely to be a coincidence. More plausibly, it is tied to forthcoming developments involving Iran. I find it hard to believe that Lavrov didn’t raise the Iran issue during his meetings in Yerevan. The interconnection between the Israel-Iran conflict and the Armenia-Azerbaijan situation was also recently highlighted by ANC Vice-Chairman Levon Zurabyan.
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Second, while Russia is making limited overtures to the U.S., it continues to treat the EU as an adversary. This is evident in Lavrov’s pointed comments about the European Political Community (EPC) summits—beginning with Prague in 2022, where Pashinyan acknowledged Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan, continuing with Tirana this year, and now potentially extending to a summit in Yerevan next year.
Here, the key question we must ask is not about loyalty or betrayal—but rather a practical one:
What can the European Political Community offer Armenia? And what, realistically, can Russia offer?
Only by answering that question with a clear head—free of ideological illusions—can we make wise decisions.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
