Yesterday, Azerbaijani sources reported that Aliyev and Pashinyan will meet in the United States to sign a peace treaty. So far, our officials remain silent. There are three possibilities:
a) it’s fake news;
b) they will meet but sign nothing—or merely “initialize” a document, which amounts to the same thing;
c) they will meet and sign an agreement.
At the moment, the second option seems the most likely. If that happens—or even if they go as far as signing—there will be plenty of noise. First, Trump, who failed to deliver the peace he promised between Russia and Ukraine, will use this Armenian-Azerbaijani “half-success” as partial compensation for his clear foreign policy failures.
In Armenia, the official propaganda machine—Nikolian, Civil Contract, and the “pro-Western” media—will ring the bells: “A brilliant triumph of the peace strategy,” “an unprecedented diplomatic success,” “a resounding slap to the Kremlin.”
Meanwhile, the opposition will declare: “traitor,” “landlord,” “you sold us out.”
The EU will greet the move warmly. Russia will issue a half-hearted statement: “Of course, it’s their business, but from now on, the responsibility lies with the U.S.”
In short, there will be a wave of informational noise—the Alpha and Omega of this administration.
In practice, however, the signing, or even the initialing, will change little. Azerbaijan will continue to reap the rewards of its aggression and ethnic cleansing. Armenian prisoners will still be tortured in Baku—after all, what kind of peace includes prisoners? Armenia’s sovereign territory will remain under occupation.
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Azerbaijan won’t abandon its demands: the so-called “Zangezur corridor,” the return of enclaves, constitutional changes, the “return to Western Azerbaijan,” reparations, and more.
This doesn’t necessarily mean war will break out in the coming weeks—or even months. As long as Pashinyan doesn’t say “No” to anything, hostilities may be avoided. But the explosive situation will certainly persist. And today, no world leader can guarantee peace.
…A peace treaty, at this stage, has about as much practical political value as a Jennifer Lopez concert.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
