Mirrorspectator. I have repeatedly noted that the Trump administration has achieved a level of activity and engagement in the South Caucasus and, arguably, in Central Asia as well, that no US administration has been able to achieve since 1992. The reason for this is not only the favorable geopolitical environment. The fact that Russia is focused on the war in Ukraine has had a significant impact, as a result of which its involvement and influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have considerably weakened. The same applies to Iran. These circumstances have created an opportunity for the Trump administration to play a much more active role in the region.
However, two additional key factors have been extremely important in making this process unprecedentedly fast and effective.
The First Factor: Steve Witkoff
According to available information, Steve Witkoff is one of the architects of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The idea of connecting Central Asia with Turkey and Europe through TRIPP is attributed to his team. This initiative is not only significant from an economic and transportation perspective but also has an important geopolitical dimension.
It is also crucial that Witkoff has a direct line of communication with President Trump, which helped prevent bureaucratic and hierarchical obstacles from emerging during the initial phase of the project (February 2025).
The resolution of the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict provides Washington with an opportunity to deprive Russia of one of its key instruments for maintaining influence in the South Caucasus — the ability to leverage the continued existence of the conflict.
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The Second Important Factor
The second important factor in this process is the Trump administration’s governing style, which is characterized by a significant reduction in bureaucratic procedures, particularly when it comes to implementing issues of vital importance, including the use of force when necessary. One only needs to recall how quickly the Panama Canal, Venezuela, and several other pending issues were addressed.
Decision-making processes are moving as quickly as possible, without traditional bureaucratic delays, allowing such large-scale geopolitical projects to be advanced and solutions to be reached in a more timely manner.
In this context, it is important that President Trump is personally engaged in these processes.
Suren Sargsyan
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