Mass protests took place in Iran at the end of the last year. Versions are being voiced within and beyond the neighbouring country that the protests were triggered by political opponents of Iran: the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. As in many other cases, it is quite difficult to bring clear evidence. Even in the case of Ukraine, it is not possible to claim for 100 percent that the US State Department’s official Victoria Nuland played a decisive role in the 2014 revolution, “giving out pies” in Maidan. It is not easy to determine the proportions of the will of the people and the “pushes” from outside. Especially in Iran, where the authorities simply will not allow anyone to “give out pies”. On the other hand, it is clear that these three countries are interested in the weakening of the state possessing a significant role in the region.
In case of Iran, some began talking about the “Arab spring” scenario. However, in the neighbouring country, the possibility of such a scenario is too small. First of all, because we all remember the events, disorders, revolutions and their consequences that took place in 2011 in a number of Arab countries. But besides this general view, we should take into account the peculiarities of Iran. First of all, this country has centuries-long and unbroken statehood, has not been anyone’s colony, moreover, has never been a “servant” of any other state. Statehood and sovereignty are in the blood of our neighbouring nation (I wish we could claim the same about us, Armenians), the majority of Iranian people will not tolerate any silly step, any adventure.
And most importantly one must admit that the world can be diverse. I personally stand for the European model of the state and I think that Armenia should follow that path. But that does not mean that Iran, Russia, and China should also take that path. Many things happening in those countries are unacceptable to me. For example, I do not like when they inactivate social networks so that people are unable to organize demonstrations. But after all, every nation decides what to tolerate, and what not to.
In short, if anyone wants to organize an “Arab spring” in Iran, it is just a waste of time.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
