“There are very interesting social survey data published. The Caucasian Research Resource Center – Armenia (CRRC) conducted a telephone survey according to which 21 percent of the respondents in Armenia positively and 7 percent very positively evaluate the possible improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations, 48 percent perceive these relations very negatively, 11 percent of the respondents perceive it negatively.
In general, 59 percent of the respondents have a negative approach to the regulation of these relations,” said Johnny Melikyan, expert of the Orbel center, during the round table discussion “Current situation in the South Caucasus and possible development scenarios” organized by the International Humanitarian Development NGO. According to him, these data show that there is still no perception of what process is happening in our society.
Johnny Melikyan considers the ongoing negotiations to be negotiations for the sake of negotiations, because according to him, they have not led to any significant results. “Today, we have a process where it can be seen that there is a motivation on the part of Armenia to establish relations with Turkey without any preconditions, which is not new in Armenian foreign policy. I don’t see any motivation for Ankara to achieve any results in this relationship.” In his opinion, the presidential elections to be held in Turkey next year will play a role in this issue. He mentioned, “In case of Erdogan’s victory, there is a chance for the establishment of Armenian-Turkish relations, and in that case we will get some kind of status without preconditions. The border will be opened not only for third countries, or the situation continues in the same way.
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Or, if Erdoğan loses, there are chances, but not great: there may be a different logic of relations politics. I know that there were several proposals from Armenia, visa-free regime with diplomatic passports, etc., which were not perceived very positively by Ankara, or maybe they were perceived, but no steps were taken after that, and the lack of motivation for such steps, based on this, we are saying that there is no motivation.”
According to Johnny Melikyan, they are talking about the same issues at the Moscow and Brussels platforms: demarcation and security issues can also be discussed in Brussels. Speaking about the possibility of signing a peace treaty, he said: “When signing such a document, I see a serious risk, when Armenia signs such a document separately from Artsakh, putting aside the status of Artsakh, we get a situation where the main big thesis, which is almost thirty years, Baku argued that this conflict is a territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Artsakh, we can thoroughly prove this thesis with our signature.
Because it will turn out that RA is signing a document without officially being at war with Azerbaijan. If we explain it another way, then there is a committee on border demarcation and security issues, there is a format of deputy prime ministers related to de-blockade, and if we are talking about Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, what is left?
De-blockade is ensured, border demarcation is also possible, economic cooperation can be in a potential form, the only thing that remains is the establishment of diplomatic relations. What kind of peace agreement should we sign, especially if Azerbaijan considers that the conflict is resolved?”
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
