At the moment, the prospect of extraordinary parliamentary elections in Armenia is not visible. Of course, nothing can be ruled out, but in the next two years, in my opinion, a change of power can happen only in case of major upheavals—such upheavals that will wake up the majority of our citizens from their snobbish stupor or, if you prefer, mental and emotional lethargy. I know that my compatriots with extreme opposition views will not agree (or may even be upset), but I have to say that I am against such shocks.
In the absence of extraordinary developments, political forces should prepare for the regular elections of 2026, which are not far off. However, I am sure that if the opposition groups continue their current approach of sporadic and unsuccessful street actions, then the chances of Pashinyan’s re-election are quite high.
First, the government successfully uses the “toolkit” specific to all authoritarian regimes: violence, repression, and propaganda. Moreover, if the previous authorities were somewhat constrained by the West’s reaction to violence and repression, then in Pashinyan’s regime, this factor is absent—the West now justifies all harsh measures to maintain power.
Second, the masses do not favor those who have failed several times—ordinary people, as a rule, worship the winners and stand next to them, or rather behind their backs. Finally, during the actual elections, the entire arsenal of the “formers” will be used with full force, particularly the administrative resources and district influence (as seen in the last elections of the Yerevan Council of Elders).
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I don’t consider myself qualified to give advice to the opposition (or the government), but I think that if politicians believe the solution is to create a new political association under the leadership of Reverend Bagrat, then they are mistaken. The clergy can influence political processes with their authority, but from “outside.” Internally, however, the existing parties should act.
It will now be very difficult to establish a new opposition party and bring it to power in two years. Yes, Civic Contract was created in 2015 and came to power in 2018, but not alone. ARF, PAP, “Bright Armenia,” and “Republic” greatly contributed to the change of power. In addition, the situation today is absolutely not the same as in 2018.
In terms of content, if I were a politician, I would try to create an atmosphere of internal solidarity, establish normal relations with Russia in foreign policy, and seek reconciliation with Azerbaijan. Peace, not the satisfaction of all whims, which will not bring peace.
And in terms of content… If I were a politician, I would try to create an atmosphere of internal solidarity, I would try to establish normal relations with Russia in foreign policy, and I would seek reconciliation with Azerbaijan. Peace, not the satisfaction of all whims, which will not bring peace.
Aram Abrahamyan
