Ukraine has struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. This is not just another attack. At the very least, viewing it as such would be a mistake. In the Caspian region, the strike represents an extension of the Russia–Ukraine war toward a potential Iran–U.S. confrontation—or even a broader Gulf war. In essence, the targeting of the Caspian region means that the war is moving ever closer to the Caucasus. The question is whether it will bypass the region—or not.
Of course, the strike on the Iranian vessel alone is not enough to draw definitive conclusions. Nevertheless, it is a serious warning sign. This is reflected in Iran’s statement, in which Tehran promises retaliation not only against Kyiv but also—through a fairly transparent hint—against Ukraine’s supporters.
If the Russia–Ukraine war and a Gulf war begin to merge into a single geopolitical theater, it would effectively create a barrier stretching from north to south, obstructing the European Union’s and China’s long-term strategic vision for trade and economic connectivity. Such a development would significantly weaken both the EU’s and China’s potential, their geopolitical influence, and their prospects in shaping the emerging world order. The EU would undoubtedly suffer the greater loss.
This is precisely why the European Union has been intensifying its efforts to strengthen its presence in the Caucasus, including through Armenia. If those ambitions are thwarted, Brussels may ultimately have no choice but to capitulate to Donald Trump.
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Against this backdrop, it is noteworthy that the first warning signal from the Caspian direction has emerged in the wake of the recent meeting between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, which lasted only half an hour. Thirty minutes is hardly enough time to discuss fundamentally new and consequential issues; it is more likely that the participants were fine-tuning existing positions. This makes it all the more important to ask what those adjustments indicate with regard to the Caucasus.
In any event, Armenia must be prepared for possible changes in the situation, as well as for both the challenges and the opportunities that may arise from them.
In this regard, however, the level of preparedness demonstrated by Armenia’s ruling force is, to put it mildly, characteristically disappointing. At the same time, Armenian society and the political opposition must strive to shoulder their share of responsibility in full, thereby helping to shift the balance of resilience in Armenia’s favor.
Hakob BADALYAN
The illustration was created using AI technology and is not documentary.
