Avetik Ishkhanyan forecasts dangerous consequences
Where has this military expert journalist received this information? In addition to anxiety, also such a question is raised with the Helsinki Committee Chairman of Armenia, Avetik Ishkhanyan, with regard to the information found in the article entitled “The outpost with questions” by the Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Khramchikhin, published in «Военно-промышленный курьер» (Military-Industrial Courier), on March 9. The author of the article has published information about the deployment of 5 Army Corps of Armenia and the armament thereof. “One can assume that the information was received from the RA Ministry of Defense or the National Security Service informed person. Or, this information was provided to him by the Russian Defense Ministry or special services. In any case, I think that Armenia’s law enforcement agencies should launch criminal proceedings against this person in connection with the disclosure of state secrets, and conduct an investigation to know where this expert journalist has got this information from,” said our interlocutor. If it turns out that the information was provided from Armenia, then these providers, according to Avetik Ishkhanyan, should be severely punished. And if it turns out that this information was provided by the Russian side, then our interlocutor again raises questions, “Do the Russian Defense Ministry or the Intelligence Services have this information? How were they obtained? Is this information provided legally in the framework of the CSTO and Armenian-Russian cooperation? Does Armenia have a similar information for the RF Armed Forces?” As to what political subtext this publication has, Avetik Ishkhanyan leaves it for the analysis by political commentators.
He is concerned that the goal that Russia pursues with this publication rather than the author, he believes, can lead to very dangerous consequences, “It is not excluded that this is a piece of information given to our rival or foe Azerbaijan. I do not know what game this publication is playing in the Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani, on the one hand, flirt, and on the other hand, enmity by using Armenia with a word “outpost” and revealing all of it. All of this gives rise to serious anxiety and Yerevan should officially respond to it at the level of foreign ministry and eve the president’s. Otherwise, we will find ourselves in the next miserable and despised situation. And I do not want to live in a state that puts itself in this situation.” The Russian analyst also referred to the possibility of the Russian-Turkish war, with the prospect of involving Armenia into it. The analyst believes that the Russia and Turkey direct military confrontation cannot be excluded in Syria that can go beyond the boundaries of the Arab State. “If Russia attacks Turkey from its own territory: from the Crimea or North Caucasus, the No 102 military base deployed on the Armenian-Turkish border will appear on the frontier. If Turkey will be the first to attack the military base, Armenia will also have to fight for its territory will be subject to aggression. If Ankara wants to open the northeastern front on its own, Moscow and Yerevan will face a tough challenge whether or not it is necessary to use the No 102 military base and the armed forces of Armenia. Even the armed force of Armenia and Russia are combined, they significantly yield to the Turkish armed forces, although, in this case, Ankara will have to fight in all directions, which would be a very serious problem,” writes the expert and adds, “It would be more difficult for Armenia if there is also a threat from Azerbaijan. There will be a danger of a complete military defeat, the occupation of the whole country and unreturnable loss of Karabakh. On the other hand, acting directly on the Russian side, Armenia would acquire the reputation of the only true ally of Moscow and will receive good opportunities to get rid of the Turkish threat at least for a long time. Moreover, in the event of Turkey’s military defeat, Baku will definitely not dare to return Karabakh in the near future by force.”
We asked Avetik Ishkhanyan whether all of this is associated with Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and yesterday’s meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Russia in this context, during which the Nagorno-Karabakh issue was to be discussed, with the discussion of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in Georgia, about which the OSCE Minsk Group American co-chair made a post in Twitter. The purpose is to exercise pressure on Armenia in obey Russia’s wishes. “It is very likely to be associated with all of it. But in the context of all of this, most importantly is Armenia’s honor that should be kept. And the one who does not keep its honor is treated as they want to,” said our interlocutor.
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Nelly GRIGORYAN, “Aravot” daily
