Any diplomacy reports the existing “de facto” situation. If we had conquered Terter or Yevlakh, the world would reckon with this reality. If the opponent had conquered Mataghis or Talish, it would be the benchmark for the negotiations. In the case of the second, the meeting I suppose would be not in Vienna but in Moscow, and Kerry, Mogherini and the others would not attend it and there would be talks, let’s say, about the “Kazan reformed principles” rather than the mechanisms to investigate the ceasefire violations. And Azerbaijan would state its “EEC” plans. Let us once again bow before the Armenian soldier who hampered the second, unfavorable scenario for us.
These words do not mean that the mechanisms excluding the ceasefire violations will be established. It is not at hand to Azerbaijan. If Aliev can look into the eyes of top representatives of superpowers and lie that Armenians have launched the 4-day war, then verbally agreeing on some mechanisms and then failing to implement them is like peas in a pod for Azerbaijan. (I emphasize, the superpowers: Russia and the United States, simply because with the help of their satellite capacity, they know for 100 percent of who has launched the war).
So, not willing to scare anyone, nevertheless, we must state: he war, however, will be on. Azerbaijan and Turkey have not given up the plans of, to put it mildly, removing us, the Armenians, from this region. Russians have not given up the intention of accepting Azerbaijanis “in their arms.” Our soldiers continue to die in the frontline. But until a new large-scale attack by Azerbaijan, we have weeks and maybe months. What can be done in the meantime? First of all, of course, to be armed. Not to wait for the Russian arms, it seems to be a hopeless task. Buy weapons from other sources. Modernize the intelligence, transport, communications, the two responsible officers in the army are dismissed, one of them is in jail. Apparently, not accidentally. Think jointly in the diplomacy, which perhaps is going to be active in the coming months, consult with everybody, even with highly opposition political forces and experienced politicians.
And the society must reckon that it is a “relative tranquility” for several weeks or several months rather than a peaceful situation. I am confident that it is not tome opportune-inopportune grumbling and “being offended”. Criticizing defects, certainly, is always topical. But regardless of the sex and age, we all must feel ourselves a soldier just like the soldiers in the trenches. To be worthy of them.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
