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Putin’s mysterious silence and Aliyev’s talkativeness

July 04,2016 13:30

Moscow’s demanded silence on Karabakh issue is broken

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, in the recent briefing, in response to the question about the outcome of the tripartite meeting of the Presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in St. Petersburg, made a remarkable statement, noting that the issue of Nagorno Karabakh requires silence. Diplomats and experts should work on the issue. It is important not to diminish the positive result by public rhetoric, it must be preserved for the implementation of concrete steps,” she said adding, “It is important to take such steps in order to transfer the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement into a certain and real platform.”

Another Russian official, Russia’s permanent representative to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich, emphasized Russia’s role in Karabakh conflict settlement against the background of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office visit to the region when the latter was in Yerevan. “The attempt to reach an agreement with the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Vienna through the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs (Russia, France, USA) certainly gave some impulse, but the Russian side has the largest potential.” Lukashevich also referred to the visit of German Foreign Minister, the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, noting that he does not have great expectations from this visit, “The Chairman-in-Office, undoubtedly, plays an important role, but it’s not the driving force. The driving force is the Minsk Group with its three co-chairs.”

Generally, the Russian game in the Karabakh settlement process is getting to be outlined more and more clearly. After the meeting in Vienna, on June 20, Moscow organized a tripartite meeting in Vienna under the auspices of Putin. This meeting can be considered just the next move of Moscow to emphasize Russia’s role in the OSCE Minsk Group if it were not followed by the most important “messages” from Baku.

While Moscow thru the lips of Zakharova was urging to keep silent, no to be extended by the topic of the talks in St. Petersburg, official Baku appeared to be impatient. Aliyev “deciphered” the details of the meeting in St. Petersburg, preferring to give importance to this meeting rather than the one in Vienna, where surely there were claims put before him.

Here Aliyev, admired by the outcome of the meeting of the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in St. Petersburg, immediately touches upon a topic about which he had demonstrated an evasive attitude for months, in essence, voicing a specific denial response. It is about the investigation offer for the border incidents, which is considered an American offer. “As for the introduction of mechanisms for the investigation of the cases of ceasefire violations as a precondition by Armenians, I think that there is no such a need at this stage. Firstly, such mechanisms do not exist. No one says to us what these mechanisms represent by itself, secondly, what is the sense of it. If it is understood a freezing of the conflict and some additional actions in the contact line, then Azerbaijan, of course, will not agree to it,” – said Aliyev.

By the bye, Aliyev craftily justifies the Baku refusal by the fact that the situation in the contact line has calmed down, and according to him, this is a “proof that there is no need for the introduction of mechanisms to investigate cases of ceasefire violation.” After the tripartite meeting in St. Petersburg, Aliyev having the sponsorship of Putin seems to reveal the expectations of Baku. Official Baku again emphasizes that the Karabakh issue should be resolved “within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,” “Nagorno-Karabakh will never obtain independence on the historical lands of Azerbaijan, a second Armenian state would never be created,” then he speaks about the status of Nagorno Karabakh noting that it is a matter of the future, “Of course, certain status might be given. There is a Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic as part of Azerbaijan.”

In response to Aliyev’s statements, official Yerevan at the level of Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian reported that the issue of autonomy of Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan has never and will never be put up for discussion. This was followed by the official response of Baku. Head of the Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hikmet Hajiyev countered, “Any status of Nagorno-Karabakh out of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is not a topic of discussion, although the RA Foreign Minister also admits this fact indirectly.”

The silence claimed by Moscow was thus violated. Aliyev found an option with the help of Putin to deny the extremely important offer of the introduction of mechanisms to investigate the border incidents. Moreover, it turns out when it is necessary for Putin and Aliyev, they are able to maintain a ceasefire in the contact line to refuse any proposal put forward by the West that is inconvenient for Baku.

It remains to wait when and under what conditions Moscow will violate the ceasefire, giving the next “Go ahead!” to Aliyev to escalate the contact line.

EMMA GABRIELYAN

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