The most heated competition of the 19th century took place within the framework of the “Great Game.” This term refers to the imperial rivalry between the UK and Russia over influence in Central Asia, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Iran, the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, and other regions. The two colonial empires used military interventions and diplomatic negotiations to acquire colonies, communication channels, pipelines, and natural resources, primarily oil, and to redefine territories in Central and South Asia.
The rivalry ended in 1907 when a new player, Germany, having come late to the competition, entered the colonial struggle and bid against the others at the time. Germany established an alliance with the Ottoman Empire and began to penetrate the Middle East and Africa. As a result, Russia, France, and the UK united against this new contender, thus ending the era of the “Great Game.” This new competition eventually led to the two world wars.
Now, the time has come for a new game, with the main actors being the US, China, Russia, and the UK. Large countries of the second echelon are already trying to participate, and, as before, coalitions are emerging and shifting, leading to new alignments.
Why is it significant for us to understand the essence of that game? The whole problem is that the South Caucasus has become one of the vital stages of the new game, and the 2020 Artsakh war is considered in the context of that competition. The fate of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations should also be considered in this light.
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James C. O’Brien, Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, who recently arrived in Yerevan, frankly outlined the main provisions of the US policy in the South Caucasus. We will try to summarize the most important points.
The most important points are summarized as follows: a) Create a middle corridor from Central Asia to the Mediterranean Sea, which will also pass through Armenia to Turkey and will economically strengthen the larger region, while pushing Russia and Iran out of the South Caucasus and Central Asia (the name of the latter is not mentioned, but it is implied in a footnote); b) for this purpose, the “Zangezur Corridor” should be built (the name of the corridor is not given, but it is described); c) The US will not assume the role of a guarantor, that is, it will not protect the Republic of Armenia in case of a possible aggression by Azerbaijan and Turkey against Syunik (this is a problem for Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve); d) it is implied that the possibility of implementing this plan has now opened, as Russia is “stuck” in Ukraine and Iran in the Middle East.
These are the key standpoints, but not all. The new big game started a long time ago and is ongoing in Ukraine, the Middle East, and our region. The positions of Iran, Russia, Turkey, China, and India are naturally important because their vital interests are affected. Whether this rivalry will heat up our region again and lead to a major war depends on various circumstances, including the policies of the incumbant government of Armenia, which is clearly confrontational towards Iran and Russia, potentially leading to retaliatory measures and perhaps even harsh actions.
ACNIS (The Armenian Center for National and International Studies)