Vahram Atanesyan, Chairman of the NKR Parliament Foreign Affairs Standing Committee, does not see perspective in Russian-Azerbaijani strategic alliance
– The main line of analysis of RF President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan is that the major bet of Moscow to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus lies on Azerbaijan. In your opinion, how can it affect the Armenian-Russian relations? What possible impact may it have on the future settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict, although on the agenda of Putin and Aliyev negotiations there is no point about NKR issue?
– Azerbaijan seems to have made its choice in favor of the Euro-Atlantic direction. Most likely, there will be no sharp turn from this line. But since Aliyev has problems in the nearest future regarding the third term of presidency, Russia probably has decided to use the moment. Such a thing happened in Russian-Azerbaijani relations in 1993, when Heydar Aliyev ‘returned’ Azerbaijan to composition of Commonwealth of Independent States to strengthen his own power in support of the Kremlin. Moscow, thus, “is entering the same water for the second time.” But, at least, I do not see perspective in the Russian-Azerbaijani strategic alliance.
– Judging from the composition of representatives of delegation arrived in Baku with Vladimir Putin, and from the statements made by Ilham Aliyev and Putin, a new Russian-Azerbaijani alliance is formed. What problems does this new reality put in front of Armenian states?
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– I has already told that I don’t see perspective in the Russian-Azerbaijani strategic partnership, moreover, in the alliance. The problem is that Azerbaijan exporting oil and gas to European markets, principally is becoming a serious economic rival of Russia. Europeans did not hide the fact that they close their eyes before self-will of Ilham-Aliev regime only because Azerbaijan is an alternative of Russia in the issue of “energy security provision”. In this situation, what Russian-Azerbaijani alliance are we talking about? And in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan rejects the special role of Russia, since the matter refers to the presence of Russian military in Azerbaijan, which is not acceptable by official Baku. In general, in the preamble of the Constitutional Act on Independence of Azerbaijan, and it has not been changed, Russia has called an “occupant” country. The conclusion is followed by itself.
– The political parties, both the opposition and the government, are concerned about this visit in the sense that the visit of the first figure of the country considered to be a strategic ally of Armenia to the enemy country can present a threat to Armenia, although, there are no items in the Russian-Azerbaijani negotiating agenda that are contradictory to Armenian-Russian alliance agreements in legal terms. How do you assess it?
– To the best of my memory, barely a month ago after the Russian-Georgian war, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Baku. Further relations, however, did not deepen, on the contrary, complications occurred. As much as any comparison “lames”, I am inclined to assume that Putin-Aliyev negotiations have recorded a reality: Russia and Azerbaijan can only be partners of trade and economy, and nothing more. In some sense, Putin’s visit to Baku was the beginning of the end of assumptions about the “aged-old friendship” of Russian-Azerbaijani and possible military alliance.
– In the last days, there is quite noticeable tension in Karabakh-Azerbaijani contact line. How can you explain that? Is the likelihood of control over hostilities increasing?
– Ilham Aliyev goes to the polls with only one “resource”. It is highlighted militaristic rhetoric, the thesis of “inevitability of war”. To inspire threat to society of its own country and thus to eliminate the political rivals, incidents are provoked in the contact line. Mostly, Ilham Aliyev has started it pre-election campaign from the contact line of troops. The international community, especially the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries, should make serious conclusions out of it.
Interviewer, Nelly GRIGORYAN
