As expected, Armenia did not succeed in receiving any announcement which would partially refer to Azerbiajan’s aggression and occupation of the organization member՛s sovereign areas. According to the president of Belarus Lukashenko, the state leaders have reached some kind of “not subject to publication” agreement behind closed doors, which would help sign a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to the president of Belarus, “Nikol Vovayevich” is content with the plan. Although the order of those steps does not get published at the moment, what is hidden in the dark always comes to light. I suppose that the first person to talk about it will be Ilham Aliyev. That is how it usually goes. I am certain that Putin and Lukashenko have informed the Azerbaijani president about the discussion in Yerevan, and Aliyev will voice his opinion on it, conveniently placing the emphasises, without forgetting to address something humiliating and threatening to Armenia.
To be honest, I have reasons to suspect that the Azerbaijani president is ready to sign a serious document, although another record of “intentions” being signed until the end of this year, and under Russia’s auspices this time, is possible. The intentions of Armenian authorities do not matter here. Weeks ago the Armenaian prime minister was “threatening” to sign a document, which would result in him being called a “traitor”.
But it’s not the “unconvincing” demonstrations of the opposition that held him back. The determinator here is definitely Russia’s viewpoint, and that country is not in a state to guarantee any documents. Clearly, Russia is willing to keep its levers on Azerbaijan and consequently, its military presence in Artsakh.
So Yerevan and Moscow might share their interests on that matter, I reckon (Wasn’t that a part of the Yerevan agreement?). But the condition that Russia is going to be in in 3 years when the term of Russian peacekeepers comes to an end, cannot be foreseen. Anyway, the war with Ukraine does not help their situation at all.
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As for Artsakh, Aliyev, not accepting that Armenia can have any role there, has recently been talking about discussing the issue with Russia, USA and EU. If that is the case, then it opens a broad working front for our diplomacy.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
