Analysts of the Stratfor analytical center predict that, judging by the rhetoric of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the possibility of a new outbreak either on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border or in Nagorno-Karabakh is rising.
“Pashinyan and Aliyev failed to meet in Brussels, Belgium, for peace talks in November, and the potential further delay to their December meeting is a clear sign that talks have stalled. The two sides’ failure to make greater progress in peace talks and the recent shift in Azerbaijani rhetoric suggest that Azerbaijan is increasingly motivated to use force to demonstrate its leverage, meaning the possibility of renewed violent episodes either on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border or in Nagorno-Karabakh is rising. A renewed uptick in violence would make a breakthrough in peace talks even more unlikely to occur by the end of this year”, the article says.
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