“We are now under the immediate threat of Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia.” Some political scientists or analyst does not say this. It is a quote from the interview of the Ambassador of Armenia to the EU, Tigran Balayan. And what the ambassador said is, of course, 100 percent true. Balayan suggests that the European Union set a deadline for Aliyev to withdraw its armed forces from the sovereign territory of Armenia. If this does not happen, impose sanctions on Azerbaijan.
Of course, it would be wonderful if the bureaucrats in Brussels accepted our ambassador’s offer, but it seems like something from the realm of fantasy to me. Energy cooperation with Azerbaijan is much more essential for the EU than the fate of Armenia. In the first case, it is material interests; in the second case, “lyrics.”
Just as the EU did not prevent the depopulation of Artsakh (despite Charles Michel’s “brilliant” activity), it will not prevent the invasion of the territory of Armenia, nor will it contribute to the liberation of 150 square kilometers of that territory. You will say there was an “internationally recognized” territory of Azerbaijan; here is the “internationally recognized” territory of Armenia. But haven’t we been convinced in recent decades that those “internationally recognized” are just words?
Can Azerbaijan’s expected attack prevent Russia? Let’s carefully read the interview of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin (not only the text but also the subtexts). It is not possible to draw optimistic conclusions from what he said. If we translate from diplomatic language to ordinary language, what Galuzin said is that Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenian territory in 2021-22 was a consequence of the Armenian government’s position, including deviating from the principles established in 2020, rejecting CSTO observers and inviting EU observers.
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In such cases, it is pointless to discuss how “just” or “moral” such conclusions are. That is the position of Russia, which does not promise anything good for us in case of the invasion of Azerbaijan. In my impression, Russia wants an entity named “Republic of Armenia” to exist, but it should be completely under its control. If there is no “outpost”, then Russia will not have any interest. In the end, it doesn’t matter to the West. Theoretically, Iran wants us to have an independent state, but it is difficult to say what it is ready for.
Under these conditions, we have a leader of the Republic of Armenia who handed over Artsakh to Azerbaijan, as well as 150 square kilometers from the territory of the Republic of Armenia. The so-called “enclaves” are also being prepared to be handed. That is a certain message for the international players. Highly unfavorable for us.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
